SmartFlow Founder Ivailo Chaushev Discusses AI Markets on Bloomberg TV

Takeaways

• Investors remain focused on AI earnings and semiconductor demand despite geopolitical uncertainty.
• The stock-market reaction to rising oil prices has so far been relatively moderate.
• SK Hynix’s sharp decline may partly reflect technical selling following its US listing rather than a complete change in its long-term outlook.
• TSMC’s results will test whether strong AI demand can support high expectations and substantial capital investment.
• Demand for HBM and DRAM remains an important part of the AI infrastructure cycle.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to remain highly dependent on inflation and labor-market data.

Markets Continue to Prioritize AI and Corporate Earnings

Escalating tension in the Middle East contributed to several negative sessions for global equity markets, including declines in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

Oil prices rose more sharply, but the reaction across the wider stock market remained comparatively restrained. According to Chaushev, this suggests that investors are currently placing greater weight on corporate earnings and the outlook for the technology sector than on geopolitical risk alone.

That does not mean geopolitical developments are unimportant. Higher energy prices can affect inflation, interest-rate expectations, consumer spending and company margins. However, the market’s immediate response indicated that investors were still primarily focused on whether AI-related companies could deliver financial results strong enough to justify their valuations.

SK Hynix Decline May Reflect Technical Selling

Chaushev also discussed the significant correction in SK Hynix shares following the listing of the company’s American depositary receipts on Nasdaq.

The shares experienced a sharp decline over several sessions. One factor highlighted during the interview was the absence of a traditional lock-up period for some participants in the offering, allowing investors to realize profits immediately after the listing.

This may have created additional selling pressure unrelated to the company’s underlying semiconductor demand.

Reduced analyst estimates also contributed to the weakness. SK Hynix sells high-bandwidth memory through longer-term contracts, which means it may not immediately capture every increase in spot memory prices.

However, Chaushev noted that the wider analyst outlook remained constructive. In his view, the price could begin finding support near the offering level once the initial wave of panic selling and profit-taking weakened.

The distinction is important for investors: a rapid decline can reflect changing fundamentals, technical market structure or a combination of both. Understanding the cause of the selling is more useful than reacting only to the size of the price movement.

TSMC Earnings Will Test High AI Expectations

The market is also closely watching TSMC as one of the most important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain.

Strong operating data continue to support the argument that investment in AI infrastructure remains robust. Demand for advanced chips used in data centers, AI accelerators and high-performance computing has continued to drive activity across the semiconductor industry.

However, strong historical growth may not be enough to push the stock higher.

Chaushev explained that investors will focus on whether TSMC raises its forward guidance and whether it can protect its margins while investing heavily in advanced two-nanometer manufacturing and new production capacity outside Taiwan.

This helps explain why a company can report strong results and still receive a muted market reaction. When expectations are already extremely high, investors often require improved guidance—not simply confirmation that the business remains strong.

The HBM Memory Cycle Remains Strong

High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, is an increasingly important part of the AI infrastructure market.

HBM is used alongside advanced processors to support the rapid transfer of large amounts of data required by AI applications. Its production is more demanding than conventional memory and can consume significantly more manufacturing capacity.

According to the Bloomberg TV Bulgaria discussion, HBM already accounts for a substantial share of DRAM production capacity. Because producing HBM requires more silicon wafers, increasing HBM demand can also restrict the supply of conventional memory products.

This supports pricing and revenue expectations across parts of the memory-chip industry.

Chaushev argued that the underlying fundamentals for memory producers remain strong, with DRAM revenue expected to continue growing and HBM becoming a more important market driver.

Nevertheless, semiconductor stocks may remain highly volatile. The sector has attracted considerable capital, and crowded positioning can make share prices more sensitive to earnings, guidance, analyst revisions and changes in investor sentiment.

The Federal Reserve Remains Data-Dependent

The Federal Reserve was another central topic in the interview.

Chaushev’s base case was that the central bank could keep interest rates unchanged during 2026. However, the outlook remains dependent on incoming inflation and labor-market data.

Each Federal Reserve meeting may therefore carry greater market significance.

When central banks provide limited forward guidance, investors have less certainty about future policy. An unexpected inflation reading, employment report or change in economic activity can produce a larger adjustment in bond yields, currencies and equity valuations.

This is particularly relevant for technology and AI stocks. Many trade at valuations that depend on strong future earnings growth, making them sensitive to changes in interest rates and the discount rate applied to those future profits.

Earnings Season Must Support the AI Rally

The next earnings season will be a significant test for the AI investment theme.

Investors will look for evidence that the sector’s strong share-price performance is supported by real financial results. Important areas to monitor include:

• revenue growth;
• operating margins;
• capital expenditure;
• management guidance;
• customer demand;
• returns generated from AI investments.

The central question is no longer whether companies are spending money on AI. It is whether that spending can produce sustainable revenue, stronger productivity and acceptable returns on investment.

Companies that exceed expectations and raise guidance may continue to benefit from the AI investment cycle. Those that report strong results but fail to meet elevated market expectations could still experience sharp declines.

Strengthening SmartFlow’s Market Authority

Ivailo Chaushev’s appearance on Bloomberg TV Bulgaria reinforces SmartFlow’s position as a source of professional, evidence-based market analysis.

The discussion did not reduce the market outlook to a simple bullish or bearish prediction. Instead, it connected several important layers of market intelligence:

• geopolitical risk;
• oil prices and inflation;
• AI infrastructure investment;
• semiconductor fundamentals;
• technical selling pressure;
• investor positioning;
• corporate earnings;
• Federal Reserve policy.

This multi-layered approach reflects how SmartFlow helps retail traders examine the market.

Rather than relying on a single data point, traders can combine institutional-style flow, options positioning, market maker exposure, sentiment, company fundamentals and macroeconomic context.

A large options trade or strong earnings figure can be informative, but neither should be interpreted in isolation.

About Ivailo “Ivo” Chaushev

Ivailo Chaushev, also written as Ивайло Чаушев, is the founder of SmartFlow Trading and a financial-market analyst with experience in trading and market making.

Through SmartFlow and his media appearances, Chaushev focuses on explaining institutional market activity, options positioning, company fundamentals and macroeconomic developments in a clear and practical way.

His appearance on Bloomberg TV Bulgaria provides further independent recognition of his expertise across artificial intelligence, semiconductor markets, monetary policy and global equities.

Learn more about SmartFlow Trading and explore the latest analysis on the SmartFlow market intelligence blog.