CFTC COT Report Analysis – Week of September 15, 2026
The broad read from this week’s CFTC COT report is that leveraged funds became less bearish on U.S. equities, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. That is constructive, but I would not call it a full bullish positioning shift because short covering did most of the heavy lifting and asset managers were reducing exposure.
Outside equities, the picture was mixed. Gold and silver weakened at the margin, Bitcoin’s improvement came mainly from leveraged-fund short covering, Ether positioning deteriorated and DXY saw the clearest outright bearish flow of the week.
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
Leveraged funds remained net short 269,774 S&P 500 contracts, but their net position improved by 45,959 during the week as leveraged funds added 7,935 longs and covered 38,024 shorts. This is new long buying alongside short covering, but most of the move came from shorts being closed.
That is clearly better than seeing more shorts added, but it is not the same as funds suddenly building a large bullish position.
Asset managers remained structurally net long 897,663 contracts. However, their net position declined by 8,026 as they reduced both longs and shorts. Long exposure fell faster, so they became less constructive at the margin.
Open interest increased by 393,531 contracts, showing a large increase in overall participation. The setup has improved, but stronger confirmation would require leveraged funds to continue adding longs while asset-manager exposure stabilises or begins rising again.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq produced the strongest positive leveraged-money change across the major equity indices as leveraged funds improved their net position by 25,064 contracts and were left only marginally net short at 2,689. They added 3,946 longs and covered 21,118 shorts.
Again, this is constructive, but the majority of the improvement came from short covering. The one-month change was also very strong at 54,726 contracts, although covering existing shorts remained the main driver.
Asset managers went the other way – their net long fell by 8,300 contracts as they liquidated 5,286 longs and added 3,014 shorts.
Open interest increased by 30,797, so participation was rising. For me, the Nasdaq signal is tactically constructive, but the asset-manager flows prevent it from becoming a clean bullish read.
Dow Jones
The changes in Dow positioning were much smaller – asset managers remained net long 7,934 contracts but reduced their net position by 657. That came from slight long liquidation alongside new short selling.
Leveraged funds improved by 1,797 contracts but remained net short 2,510. Both longs and shorts declined, with shorts falling faster.
This is better described as position unwinding than fresh bullish demand. Open interest rose by 12,095 contracts across the market, but the tracked speculative categories did not show strong directional conviction.
Russell 2000
Asset managers increased their Russell 2000 net position by 689 contracts to a net long of 24,224.
The headline looks positive, but both longs and shorts were reduced. Shorts simply fell by slightly more. There was no fresh asset-manager long buying behind the improvement.
Leveraged funds improved their net position by 12,693 contracts. This move had a different composition: they added 17,976 longs while also adding 5,283 shorts.
That tells us both sides were adding risk, with the increase in longs winning at the margin. Leveraged funds still remained heavily net short at 97,422 contracts, so I would describe this as an improvement from a cautious starting point rather than a bullish reversal.
Open interest increased by 71,076, which confirms fresh participation in the contract.
VIX
Asset managers added to their VIX net short, with the position falling by 15,245 contracts to negative 52,658.
They liquidated 2,611 longs and added 12,634 shorts. That is a clear bearish flow in VIX futures, although it should not automatically be translated into a bullish equity prediction.
Their position is near the bottom of its own historical range. In this case, extreme-low crowding means the net position is unusually low relative to history. It does not mean asset managers are heavily long volatility.
Leveraged funds became less net short by 6,766 contracts, but both longs and shorts declined. That improvement came from positions being unwound, not from new volatility buying.
The two categories therefore give us different signals. I would not treat this as a clean directional read on volatility.
Metals Positioning
Gold
Managed money remained net long 133,116 gold contracts, equivalent to 32.5% of total open interest.
The position fell by 1,856 contracts during the week. Both longs and shorts declined, but long liquidation was larger.
Open interest also fell slightly, which supports the idea that this was position closure rather than aggressive new bearish participation.
Gold positioning remains elevated relative to its recent history, but funds have become less constructive at the margin. A stronger bullish confirmation would require managed-money longs and total open interest to start rising together.
Silver
Managed money reduced its silver net long by 1,262 contracts to 13,124.
This was weaker than the gold flow because managed money liquidated 943 longs while also adding 319 shorts. Open interest increased slightly, so the move was not driven entirely by positions closing.
The one-month change remained positive at 1,429 contracts. I would therefore describe silver as having a constructive monthly trend with a weaker latest week, rather than a complete bearish reversal.
Energy Positioning
Crude Oil
Managed money remained slightly net short crude oil at 10,022 contracts. The weekly net change was only negative 335 contracts.
Funds added 5,713 longs and 6,048 shorts, meaning both sides increased their exposure but shorts grew by slightly more.
Open interest increased by only 448 contracts. There is not enough movement here to claim that crude positioning has shifted meaningfully in either direction.
Producer and merchant positions also need to be treated carefully because commercial hedging can dominate this category. I would not use their net position as a clean speculative signal.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Leveraged funds reduced their Bitcoin net short by 1,545 contracts. They added 424 longs and covered 1,121 shorts, leaving the group net short 6,362.
The net change is constructive, but this is exactly where the composition and open-interest data matter.
Most of the improvement came from short covering, while total Bitcoin open interest fell by 337 contracts. That points more towards existing positions being closed than broad new participation.
Asset managers were also reducing exposure. Their net long fell by 983 contracts through a combination of long liquidation and new short selling.
So no, this is not evidence of broad institutional Bitcoin accumulation. Leveraged-fund bearish pressure eased, but asset managers became less constructive.
A stronger signal would require new asset-manager buying alongside rising open interest.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
DXY produced the most aggressive directional shift in the report.
Leveraged funds moved from net long to net short, with their position falling by 11,094 contracts to negative 4,908.
The move included the liquidation of 3,227 longs and the addition of 7,867 new shorts. This is not simply existing positions being closed. There was genuine new bearish exposure being added.
There is one important caveat: total open interest fell by 14,114 contracts. That tells us the broader DXY futures market was also going through a significant contraction in participation.
Asset managers remained net long 15,802 contracts but reduced their position slightly during the week.
The near-term leveraged-money flow was clearly bearish, while the broader asset-manager structure remained dollar-long. For me, that makes DXY the strongest directional change in the report, but not a completely uncontested one.
