CFTC COT Report Analysis: Week of September 8, 2026
The September 8 COT report is not giving us a clean risk-on or risk-off signal and the real story is the growing split between asset managers and leveraged funds across equities.
Asset managers increased exposure to Nasdaq, Dow and Russell 2000 futures, while leveraged funds became more bearish across all four major equity indices. Outside equities, silver recorded the strongest bullish flow but is now increasingly crowded, Ether saw meaningful new short pressure and the dollar remained positively positioned despite losing some momentum.
The report reflects positions held on Tuesday, September 8. The CFTC publishes the data later in the week, so it should be treated as positioning context and not a real-time trading signal.
The financial futures categories used below are explained in the CFTC Traders in Financial Futures methodology. Metals and crude oil use the classifications covered by the CFTC Disaggregated COT methodology.
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
The S&P 500 gave us the clearest bearish alignment across the equity indices because both asset managers and leveraged funds reduced exposure.
Asset managers remained heavily net long at 905,689 contracts, but their position fell by 19,634. More importantly, the reduction came from 3,164 contracts of long liquidation alongside 16,470 new shorts. This was not simply some profit-taking from existing longs.
Leveraged funds also became more bearish. Their net short increased by 25,019 contracts to 315,733 as they liquidated 14,616 longs and added 10,403 shorts.
Open interest increased by 23,439 contracts, which tells us participation in the broader contract was rising and combined with the underlying flows, this makes the deterioration more important than it would have been in a falling open-interest environment.
The S&P positioning signal is therefore straightforward – asset managers remain structurally long, but both tracked categories became less constructive during the week. This aligns with our analysis from the start of the week to trim into strength you can read in the SmartFlow Trading dashboard.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq positioning was far more divided.
Asset managers increased their net long by 3,570 contracts to 74,202. That improvement came from 2,498 new longs alongside 1,072 contracts of short covering, giving us a genuine increase in bullish exposure from the category.
Leveraged funds went aggressively in the opposite direction as their net short increased by 17,194 contracts after they liquidated 5,340 longs and added 11,854 new shorts. At 5.2% of open interest, this was the largest weekly equity positioning change in the report.
The limitation is that total Nasdaq open interest fell by 2,959 contracts and that tells us the market as a whole was contracting even as leveraged funds added new shorts.
The signal is mixed as asset managers were buying while leveraged funds were positioning for more downside or increasing hedges. I would want to see one side reverse before treating Nasdaq positioning as a clean directional signal.
Dow Jones
The Dow showed a similar disagreement.
Asset managers increased their net long by 3,064 contracts through 1,605 new longs and 1,459 contracts of short covering and their position jumped 31 percentile points in a single week and reached the 92nd percentile of its six-month history.
Leveraged funds increased their net short by 2,543 contracts through long liquidation and new short selling. Open interest rose by 2,227 contracts, meaning fresh participation was entering the contract, but the two categories were using it in opposite directions.
The asset-manager move was constructive, although the rapid jump in crowding means a good part of that improvement is already reflected in positioning.
Russell 2000
Asset managers increased their Russell 2000 net long by 6,454 contracts to 23,535, but the composition needs some context.
Only 1,389 contracts came from new long buying, while 5,065 came from short covering. That is still a meaningful improvement, but it is not the same as a large fresh long build.
Leveraged funds remained deeply net short at 110,115 contracts. They added 6,452 longs and 7,151 shorts, leaving the overall net position only 699 contracts more bearish.
Their position now sits at the 4th percentile of its six-month history and the 2nd percentile of its one-year range. In other words, leveraged funds remain close to their most bearish Russell positioning of the past year.
That creates an asymmetric setup if price begins moving against those shorts, but extreme positioning is not a timing signal by itself. It can remain extreme for much longer than expected.
VIX
VIX positioning is another area where the headline numbers can be misleading.
Asset managers increased their net short by 6,388 contracts to 37,413. They liquidated 962 longs and added 5,426 new shorts, making the weekly move clearly more short volatility.
Leveraged funds went the other way. They added 5,110 longs and 2,122 shorts, reducing their net short by 2,988 contracts. They still remained net short by 23,270 contracts, but became less aggressively positioned against volatility.
Open interest increased by 21,098 contracts, confirming fresh participation. The key read is that asset managers added to short-volatility exposure while leveraged funds became slightly more defensive. This is not a uniform signal of complacency across the market.
Metals Positioning
Gold
Gold positioning remains constructive, but there was no fresh bullish build this week.
Managed money remained net long by 134,972 contracts, equivalent to 32.8% of total open interest. The net position fell by 1,799 contracts as managers closed 3,917 longs and 2,118 shorts.
Because both sides were reducing exposure and open interest fell by 3,969 contracts, this is better described as position unwinding rather than a new bearish move.
Managed-money positioning remains elevated at the 85th percentile of its six-month history and the 83rd percentile of its one-year range. Gold is still structurally well owned, but the latest report shows consolidation rather than additional conviction.
Silver
Silver recorded the cleanest bullish flow across the metals.
Managed money increased its net long by 1,788 contracts to 14,386. Unlike a move driven by short covering, managers added 1,992 new longs while shorts increased by only 204 contracts.
The issue is crowding. Managed-money positioning jumped 15 percentile points in one week and reached the 96th percentile of its six-month history.
Total open interest also fell by 1,112 contracts, so the new managed-money longs were not accompanied by broad market-wide participation. The setup remains constructive, but silver is becoming increasingly one-sided and therefore more sensitive to any reversal in momentum.
Crude Oil
Managed money remained net short crude oil, although bearish pressure eased slightly.
The net position improved by 1,060 contracts to a 9,687-contract short. Managers added 831 new longs and covered 229 shorts, which is directionally constructive.
The move was still very small at only 0.1% of open interest, while total open interest fell by 13,924 contracts. I would not read this as a meaningful bullish turn yet.
Producer and merchant positioning also improved, but both longs and shorts were reduced. Since this category is heavily influenced by commercial hedging, it should not be treated as a clean speculative signal.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin positioning was relatively quiet during the week.
Asset managers increased their net long by only 45 contracts to 3,743. They added both longs and shorts, leaving the net change close to flat.
The one-month picture is more constructive. The asset-manager net position has improved by 1,509 contracts, equivalent to 7% of current open interest. However, most of that improvement came from short covering rather than aggressive new long accumulation.
Leveraged funds increased their net short by 284 contracts as they added both longs and shorts, with short additions slightly larger.
Open interest rose by 1,450 contracts, so fresh participation was entering Bitcoin futures, but there was no clear directional agreement between the two tracked categories.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
Both asset managers and leveraged funds remained net long the U.S. Dollar Index, but the bullish positioning momentum slowed.
Asset managers increased their net long by only 103 contracts to 16,344. They added both longs and shorts, leaving the directional change marginal.
Leveraged funds reduced their net long by 946 contracts through 685 contracts of long liquidation and 261 new shorts. They still held a 6,186-contract net long, so this is a reduction in bullish exposure rather than a complete bearish reversal.
Positioning also remains elevated. Leveraged funds sit at the 88th percentile of their six-month history and the 94th percentile of their one-year range.
Open interest increased sharply by 7,845 contracts, but the two tracked categories did not show a corresponding increase in net bullish exposure. The dollar remains positively positioned, although the latest flow suggests that the long trade is no longer accelerating.
