CFTC COT Report Analysis – Week of September 22, 2026
This week’s CFTC COT report analysis is a good example of why I rarely look at the headline net-position number on its own. There are several areas where asset-manager positioning improved, but once you separate new longs from short covering, the picture becomes much less bullish.
The main theme is fairly straightforward – leveraged funds rebuilt shorts across equities and crypto, while a lot of the improvement from asset managers came from reducing positions rather than aggressively adding risk.
Metals remain constructive on an absolute basis but did not see convincing fresh speculative buying, while DXY positioning remains divided between trader categories.
In other words, there is no one clean macro trade running through the entire report.
So I would not call this a broad risk-on positioning shift yet.
For comparison, you can also read our previous COT report for the week of September 15.
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
Asset managers became 35,034 contracts more net long, taking their position to 932,697 net long, but this was not fresh buying. They cut 21,273 longs and covered 56,307 shorts. Leveraged funds moved sharply the other way, cutting 42,204 longs and adding 43,318 shorts, taking their net short to 355,296 contracts.
The other thing I would pay attention to is open interest, which fell by a very large 718,748 contracts. So despite the stronger asset-manager net number, I would not call this fresh bullish positioning yet. I would rather see actual long additions, leveraged funds stop building shorts and open interest begin to stabilise.
Nasdaq
Asset managers became 4,290 contracts more net long, taking their position to 70,192 net long, but almost all of the improvement came from covering 4,509 shorts while longs actually fell by 219 contracts. Leveraged funds went the other way, adding 23,556 shorts against only 1,154 new longs, leaving them 25,091 contracts net short.
Nasdaq open interest also fell by 33,272 contracts. What makes this more interesting is that leveraged-fund positioning had been improving over the one-month window, so this week represents a fairly sharp reversal. I would want to see leveraged funds stop adding shorts and asset managers start adding actual longs before becoming more constructive on the positioning side.
Dow Jones
The Dow had the cleanest asset-manager flow of the major equity indices. Asset managers added 3,214 longs while covering 3,069 shorts, increasing their net position by 6,283 contracts to 14,217 net long. Unlike the S&P and Russell, this was genuine long buying rather than simply short covering.
Leveraged funds still moved the other way, adding 2,009 shorts against only 454 longs, leaving them 4,065 contracts net short, while Dow open interest fell 13,166 contracts. So the asset-manager move is constructive, but I would still like to see broader participation and some confirmation from the leveraged-fund side.
Russell 2000
Russell asset managers became 8,709 contracts more net long, reaching 32,933 net long, but again the composition matters. They cut 1,530 longs and covered 10,239 shorts, meaning most of the improvement came from closing bearish positions rather than building new bullish ones.
Leveraged funds were much more defensive, cutting 1,495 longs and adding 9,952 shorts, taking their total net short to 108,869 contracts. Open interest also fell by 88,338 contracts, so despite the stronger asset-manager net number, I would want to see actual long additions before treating this as a meaningful bullish shift in small caps.
VIX
Asset managers became another 2,722 contracts more net short VIX, taking their total position to 55,380 net short, but both sides of the book declined. They liquidated 4,220 longs while covering 1,498 shorts. Leveraged funds also reduced exposure, covering 12,058 shorts while cutting 10,569 longs, leaving them 15,015 contracts net short.
VIX open interest fell by 33,730 contracts, so I would read this mostly as position reduction rather than a strong new volatility view. There is not enough here for me to say traders are aggressively putting on either a fresh long-vol or short-vol trade.
Metals Positioning
Gold
Gold managed money remains comfortably net long at 127,389 contracts, but the position became slightly less bullish this week. Funds liquidated 6,695 longs while covering only 968 shorts, reducing their net long by 5,727 contracts.
Interestingly, total gold open interest still increased by 2,901 contracts, so there was fresh participation elsewhere even as managed-money exposure declined. Gold positioning remains elevated relative to its recent history, but for stronger confirmation I would want to see managed money begin adding longs again.
Silver
Silver managed money remains 13,309 contracts net long, an improvement of only 185 contracts on the week. But again, this was not new buying: funds cut 902 longs and covered 1,087 shorts, so both sides of the book declined.
Silver open interest increased by 2,729 contracts, meaning broader market participation actually rose despite managed-money exposure falling. For me, a stronger bullish positioning signal would require managed money to start adding longs alongside continued growth in open interest.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin gave us one of the cleaner examples of actual asset-manager buying. Asset managers added 434 longs and only 23 shorts, increasing their net long by 411 contracts to 3,171 net long. Open interest also rose by 1,791 contracts, so broader market participation increased.
Leveraged funds moved in the opposite direction, cutting 781 longs and adding 851 shorts, becoming another 1,632 contracts more net short and taking their total short to 7,994 contracts. So we have genuine asset-manager accumulation, but I would want leveraged-fund short building to slow before calling this a broader bullish positioning shift.
Ether
Ether asset managers improved their net position by 428 contracts, largely through 418 new longs, which is constructive. They still remain 1,492 contracts net short, however, so the improvement has not yet taken them into an outright net-long position.
Leveraged funds became considerably more bearish, cutting 648 longs and adding 2,257 shorts, worsening their net position by 2,905 contracts to 10,603 net short. Open interest rose by 1,682 contracts, so the main thing I will be watching is whether this divergence between asset managers and leveraged funds starts to narrow.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
DXY asset managers added 1,430 longs and 460 shorts, increasing their net long by 970 contracts to 16,772. Unlike several of the equity moves this week, there was genuine new long building here, while total DXY open interest also increased by 2,601 contracts.
Leveraged funds added 847 longs and 435 shorts, slightly improving their position but remaining 4,496 contracts net short. Their one-month positioning has still deteriorated by 13,684 contracts, so this week’s improvement does not erase the broader divergence between asset managers and leveraged funds.
