CFTC COT Report Analysis: Week of October 6, 2026
The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows a market where positioning is becoming increasingly divided rather than moving uniformly towards or away from risk.
Leveraged funds increased bearish exposure in S&P 500 futures, while Nasdaq and Dow positioning improved. At the same time, volatility positioning shifted, gold was targetted by further speculative selling, and crypto continued to lack convincing confirmation from asset managers.
You can explore the underlying data, historical positioning and futures money flows through the SmartFlow COT Analysis Dashboard.
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500 – Leveraged Funds Rebuild Bearish Exposure
S&P 500 positioning deteriorated considerably among leveraged funds, with net shorts increasing by 41,896 contracts to 396,112. The composition is important because funds liquidated 16,811 long contracts while adding 25,085 new shorts. and this is outright bearish repositioning rather than simply closing existing longs.
Asset managers remained strongly net long at 901,670 contracts, but added only 2,671 contracts to their net exposure and their positioning is also relatively low compared with their own history, sitting at the 12th percentile over six months despite remaining substantially net long in absolute terms.
Open interest increased by 46,639 contracts, providing evidence of broader participation alongside the leveraged-fund deterioration. So what we are seeing is a divergence between structurally long asset managers and increasingly bearish leveraged funds. A stronger constructive signal would require a reversal in leveraged-fund short accumulation, preferably accompanied by renewed long buying.
Nasdaq – More Constructive Positioning
Nasdaq produced one of the more constructive equity positioning shifts this week as asset managers increased net longs by 6,105 contracts to 73,667, adding 5,441 longs while covering 664 shorts.
Leveraged funds also improved net exposure by 5,565 contracts, adding 2,814 longs and covering 2,751 shorts. Importantly, the improvement came from both new buying and short covering rather than position closure alone.
Open interest increased by 14,512 contracts, strengthening the participation backdrop. However, leveraged funds remain net short 14,293 contracts, even with their net positioning at the 92nd percentile of its six-month history.
For me, the setup is constructive, particularly compared with the deterioration in S&P 500 positioning and the next confirmation would be sustained new long accumulation rather than further improvements driven mainly by short covering.
Dow Jones – Asset-Manager Positioning Reaches an Extreme
Dow Jones futures showed another constructive shift, with asset managers increasing net longs by 4,687 contracts to 19,622. The improvement was driven primarily by 4,373 new long contracts, alongside modest short covering.
Over the past month, asset-manager net exposure has increased by 11,031 contracts. Positioning now sits at the 100th percentile of both its six-month and one-year history, meaning current exposure is at the upper end of the historical range captured by the dashboard.
Leveraged funds also improved their net position by 1,287 contracts, although both gross longs and shorts increased. They remain modestly net short at 4,167 contracts. With open interest rising by 7,517 contracts, broader participation supports the constructive weekly picture. However, positioning is already elevated among asset managers…
Russell 2000 – Better Flows, Weaker Participation
Russell 2000 positioning improved across both major trader categories. Asset managers increased net longs by 5,796 contracts to 44,788, while leveraged funds reduced their net shorts by 9,378 contracts to 105,982.
Both categories added new longs alongside short covering. Leveraged funds added 6,119 longs while covering 3,259 shorts, which is more constructive than an improvement caused entirely by position closure.
However, there is an important difference compared with Nasdaq and Dow. Russell 2000 open interest declined by 6,511 contracts, suggesting the broader market experienced a reduction in outstanding positions. Asset-manager positioning is also at the 100th percentile of its six-month history, while leveraged funds remain heavily net short. The improvement is encouraging, but I would want to see open interest recover before treating it as a stronger market-wide shift.
VIX Has A Significant Divergence in Positioning
VIX positioning is very interesting this week because the two major trader categories moved in opposite directions.
Leveraged funds improved their net position by 12,961 contracts, moving from net short into a modest net long position of 5,494 contracts. However, 12,632 contracts of that improvement came from short covering, with only 329 new longs added. This is a considerable reduction in existing short-volatility exposure, rather than aggressive new volatility buying.
Asset managers went the other way, increasing net shorts by 14,114 contracts to 80,614. They liquidated 1,910 longs while adding 12,204 new shorts. Open interest also increased by 20,154 contracts, indicating expanding participation despite the sharp divergence.
Leveraged-fund positioning now sits at the 96th percentile over six months and 98th percentile over one year. Yet the group is only net long by 1.2% of open interest. The percentile is historically elevated, but the outright net long remains small.
Metals Positioning
Gold – Speculative Positioning Continues to Weaken
Gold managed money reduced its net long position by 9,331 contracts to 110,987, with the deterioration driven by 4,610 contracts of long liquidation and 4,721 new shorts. This is a more bearish flow composition than a move caused simply by taking profits on existing longs.
Over the past month, managed-money net longs have declined by 23,985 contracts. The six-month crowding percentile also fell by 27 points to the 35th percentile, showing how considerably speculative positioning has moved away from its previous historical highs.
Open interest declined by 10,347 contracts, pointing towards reduced broader participation. Producers and merchants became modestly less net short, but commercial hedging can influence those positions and should not be interpreted as straightforward speculative buying.
Gold remains substantially net long among managed money, but speculative conviction has weakened considerably at the margin.
Silver – Speculative Positioning Near Historical Lows
Silver managed money remains net long 7,528 contracts, but positioning is now exceptionally low relative to its own history. The category sits at the fourth percentile over six months and the eighth percentile over one year.
Weekly net exposure declined by just 86 contracts, with both longs and shorts being reduced. The monthly picture is considerably weaker, however, with net longs falling by 6,858 contracts through 4,691 contracts of long liquidation and 2,167 new shorts.
Open interest declined by another 1,917 contracts, reinforcing the reduced-participation picture. Silver is therefore much less crowded on the speculative long side than it was previously, but that alone is not a bullish signal.
Energy Futures Positioning
Crude Oil — Speculative Exposure Remains Cautious
Crude oil managed money remains modestly net short at 4,534 contracts, with its net position deteriorating by 1,836 contracts during the week. Managers liquidated 685 longs and added 1,151 shorts, making the weekly speculative flow moderately bearish.
Interestingly, managed-money positioning is at the 96th percentile over six months and 98th percentile over one year despite remaining net short. This is a good example of why historical crowding cannot be interpreted without checking the actual position. The category is relatively less bearish than it has been across much of the comparison period, not aggressively bullish.
Open interest increased by 9,522 contracts. Producers and merchants also increased their net longs by 10,559 contracts, although both gross longs and shorts expanded substantially, which may reflect commercial hedging. The overall picture remains mixed.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin — More Participation, Little Directional Confirmation
Bitcoin positioning was relatively quiet despite increasing open interest.
Asset managers remain net long 3,532 contracts, with their net exposure declining by just 54 during the week. They added 105 longs and 159 shorts, leaving the directional change relatively insignificant.
Leveraged funds remain substantially net short at 6,890 contracts, with weekly net positioning changing by only four contracts. They added 749 longs and 753 shorts, meaning both sides expanded almost equally.
Open interest increased by 1,868 contracts, suggesting additional futures participation, but without meaningful directional agreement between the two tracked categories. Over the past month, leveraged funds improved their net position through new longs and short covering, while asset-manager net exposure declined modestly.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY — Asset Managers Maintain Strong Dollar Exposure
DXY remains relatively constructive from an asset-manager positioning perspective.
Asset managers increased net longs by 1,089 contracts to 19,096, equivalent to 37.3% of open interest. They added 2,294 longs and 1,205 shorts, meaning both sides expanded but long accumulation was stronger.
Their positioning now sits at the 81st percentile over six months and the 90th percentile over one year, showing relatively elevated dollar exposure compared with recent history.
Leveraged funds also improved their net position by 504 contracts to a modest 863-contract net long. However, that improvement came from reducing both longs and shorts, with short covering outweighing long liquidation. Over the past month, their net exposure has actually declined by 5,323 contracts.
Open interest increased by 2,774 contracts, supporting broader participation. The dollar’s asset-manager positioning remains strong, but leveraged-money activity is less convincing
