CFTC COT Report Analysis: Week of September 29, 2026
The latest CFTC positioning data is mixed again this week and, for me, the main takeaway is that there still isn’t a broad move into risk across markets. Equity positioning remains divided, speculative exposure in metals weakened, while the improvement we are seeing in parts of crypto is still being driven heavily by short covering rather than aggressive new long buying.
The dollar is probably the more interesting move this week as both asset managers and leveraged funds improved their DXY positioning and, importantly, open interest also increased.
The report reflects positions held on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. As always, the official CFTC Commitments of Traders report is released later in the week, so I use this as positioning context rather than a real-time trading signal.
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Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
The S&P 500 is one of the weaker positioning reads this week.
Asset managers remain heavily net long at 898,999 contracts, but they reduced that position by 33,698 contracts over the week. More importantly, this was not simply profit-taking or positions being closed on both sides. Asset managers cut 16,072 longs and added another 17,626 shorts.
So I would describe this as genuine long liquidation alongside new short selling.
Their six-month crowding percentile also fell to just the 8th percentile relative to their own recent positioning history, which tells us asset-manager exposure has become considerably less aggressive than it was earlier in the period.
Leveraged funds remain net short at -354,216 contracts, but their weekly change was fairly small. At the same time, overall S&P open interest increased by 39,460 contracts, so there is fresh participation entering the contract.
The problem is that the asset-manager side is not confirming a constructive shift yet. For me, a stronger signal would be asset managers beginning to rebuild longs rather than continuing to reduce exposure.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq is a good example of why simply looking at the headline net change can be misleading.
Leveraged funds reduced their net short by 5,233 contracts, which looks constructive at first glance. But underneath that move, longs actually fell by 6,034 contracts while shorts fell by 11,267.
So yes, bearish pressure eased, but this is much better described as short covering outweighing long liquidation than fresh bullish positioning.
Open interest also fell by 22,468 contracts, which supports the same conclusion. Money is leaving the contract rather than a large amount of new risk coming in.
Asset managers are still net long Nasdaq, but they also reduced their net position during the week as new shorts outweighed new longs.
Overall, positioning became less bearish on the leveraged-fund side, but I would want to see that improvement accompanied by rising open interest and actual new long buying before reading too much into it.
Dow Jones
The Dow is slightly more complicated because the weekly and monthly pictures tell us different things.
Asset managers increased their net long to 14,935 contracts and are now at the 100th percentile of their six-month positioning history. But the weekly improvement was not created by new buying. Asset-manager longs fell by 1,186 contracts while shorts fell by 1,904.
So the weekly improvement came mainly from short covering.
The one-month picture is much stronger because over that period asset managers have both added longs and covered shorts, producing a 9,408-contract improvement in their net position.
Leveraged funds moved in the opposite direction this week, adding shorts and becoming more net short. With overall open interest basically unchanged, I do not see the latest weekly move as a major influx of fresh positioning either way.
Russell 2000
Russell 2000 is probably one of the most interesting equity markets in this week’s report because the two main categories continue to disagree completely.
Asset managers increased their net long by 6,059 contracts to 38,992, putting them at the 100th percentile of their six-month history.
However, once again the composition matters. Asset managers were not aggressively adding longs. Long exposure actually fell slightly, while they covered 6,488 shorts. So the headline net improvement is being driven mainly by short covering.
Leveraged funds are telling us something very different. They are now net short 115,360 contracts and added another 8,640 shorts during the week against only 2,149 new longs.
Open interest also increased by 17,896 contracts, which gives that bearish leveraged-fund move more weight because it is happening alongside fresh participation.
So I would not call Russell positioning bullish or bearish based on one category alone. Asset managers remain structurally long and extremely elevated relative to their history, while leveraged funds continue building a very large short position.
That disagreement itself is probably the most important signal here.
VIX Positioning
VIX positioning is showing a similar disagreement between categories.
Asset managers increased their net short to -66,500 contracts, with the move coming from both long liquidation and 7,130 new shorts. Their current position is now near the bottom of its six-month and one-year historical range.
Leveraged funds moved the other way. Their net short improved by 7,548 contracts as they added a meaningful amount of long exposure.
Over the one-month window, the move is even clearer, with leveraged money adding longs while also covering a significant amount of existing short exposure.
One thing I would be careful with here is the crowding percentile. Leveraged money is still net short VIX. The high percentile simply tells us its current position is high relative to its own history; it does not mean leveraged funds are outright long volatility.
Open interest increased during the week, so there is fresh participation coming into VIX futures. But with the two categories moving in opposite directions, I still see the overall signal as mixed rather than a clean volatility call.
Metals Positioning
Gold
Gold positioning weakened further this week.
Managed money remains net long 120,318 contracts, but that position fell by 7,071 contracts over the week and by 16,453 over the past month.
The weekly composition was also fairly clearly bearish. Managed money cut 3,988 longs while adding 3,083 new shorts, so this was not simply traders taking some profits and leaving the market. We saw both long liquidation and new short selling.
At the same time, total gold open interest fell by 6,344 contracts. So while managed-money positioning weakened, overall participation in the contract also declined.
Producer/Merchant positioning became less net short, but I would not read that as a clean speculative bullish signal. Commercial participants use futures for hedging purposes as well, which is why this category needs to be treated differently from managed money. The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders methodology gives more detail on those classifications.
Silver
Silver had a much more aggressive positioning reset.
Managed-money net longs fell by 5,695 contracts to just 7,614, with traders cutting 2,417 longs and adding 3,278 shorts.
The crowding change is probably the number that stands out most. Silver managed-money positioning dropped 81 percentile points in a single week, taking the six-month crowding reading down to the 4th percentile.
That is a very large reset.
Unlike gold, silver open interest actually increased slightly, which means this was not simply a case of everyone closing positions and walking away. New bearish exposure was entering as managed-money longs were being reduced.
Positioning is now far less crowded than it was, but I would not automatically read that as bullish. Low crowding simply means positioning is low relative to history.
For a more constructive signal, I would want to see managed money start rebuilding longs or meaningfully covering shorts.
Crude Oil Positioning
Crude oil saw another improvement in managed-money positioning, but once again the composition is important.
Managed money remains slightly net short at -2,698 contracts, although the net position improved by 2,136 contracts during the week.
The improvement came mainly because shorts fell by 2,777 contracts while longs also declined slightly.
So this is better described as bearish pressure easing through short covering, rather than traders suddenly becoming aggressively bullish on oil.
The one-month picture is somewhat better because over that period we have seen new longs added alongside short covering.
Open interest also increased this week, which tells us fresh participation is still entering the contract.
An interesting point is that managed-money crowding is at the top of its recent historical range even though the group remains slightly net short. Again, this shows why crowding should always be compared with that category’s own history.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin positioning improved this week across both tracked trader groups, but I would still be careful about calling this broad accumulation.
Asset managers increased their net long by 415 contracts. There was some genuine buying here, with 107 new longs added alongside 308 shorts being covered.
Leveraged funds also reduced their net short by 1,108 contracts, but most of that move came from covering 940 shorts. Only 168 new longs were added.
The bigger issue is open interest, which fell by 3,130 contracts.
So while Bitcoin positioning improved, the broader contract was actually shrinking. That tells us a meaningful part of the move came from traders closing positions rather than a new wave of capital entering Bitcoin futures.
I would therefore call this a constructive tactical improvement, but not yet evidence of broad new accumulation.
For that, I would want to see asset-manager buying continue while open interest stabilises or starts rising again.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
DXY is probably the cleanest positioning move in the report this week.
Asset managers increased their net long to 18,007 contracts, with 1,605 new longs added against only 370 new shorts.
Leveraged money made an even larger move, improving its net position by 4,855 contracts and moving from net short to slightly net long.
More importantly, this was not just short covering. Leveraged funds added 2,644 new longs while also covering 2,211 shorts.
That distinction matters.
Total DXY open interest also increased by 2,047 contracts, so unlike Nasdaq or crypto, the improvement here happened while participation was expanding.
There are still reasons not to overstate it. Leveraged funds remain worse positioned over the one-month window, while asset-manager exposure is already relatively high compared with its one-year history.
But if I compare the composition of the move across markets this week, DXY is clearly one of the stronger ones because we have new long buying, short covering and rising open interest at the same time.
