CFTC COT Report Analysis – Week Of July 7, 2026
The latest CFTC COT data shows Nasdaq attracted the strongest combination of new long buying and short covering, but positioning across the other equity indices remained mixed.
At the same time, leveraged funds increased bearish exposure in Bitcoin and Ether, while asset managers moved further toward the long side of the U.S. Dollar Index.
The report reflects positions held on Tuesday, July 7, 2026.
Takeaways
Nasdaq delivered the most constructive weekly equity flow. VIX positioning showed increased leveraged demand for volatility exposure, while crypto flows deteriorated under renewed long liquidation and short selling.
Gold remained structurally net long among managed money despite a modest weekly reduction. DXY positioning strengthened, although declining open interest means the move does not confirm broad new dollar participation.
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
Asset managers remained heavily net long S&P 500 futures at 969,226 contracts, or 34.4% of open interest. Their net position declined by 6,591 contracts as 10,761 new longs were outweighed by 17,352 additional shorts. This is better described as both sides adding, with hedging or bearish exposure increasing faster than long exposure.
Leveraged money remained net short by 349,563 contracts and became marginally more bearish. Both leveraged longs and shorts declined, but long liquidation was greater.
Open interest increased by only 3,659 contracts, leaving the overall signal neutral to slightly less constructive. Stronger confirmation would require asset-manager long growth or a leveraged improvement supported by fresh long buying.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq produced the clearest constructive equity positioning change. Asset managers improved their net long position by 11,406 contracts through 7,988 new longs and the covering of 3,418 shorts.
Leveraged money also improved by 13,076 contracts, combining 10,949 new longs with 2,127 contracts of short covering.
Open interest rose by 8,445 contracts, supporting the view that the move included fresh participation. However, both categories remain weaker over the one-month window, so a durable constructive trend would require this weekly flow to continue.
Dow Jones
Dow positioning was sharply divided. Asset managers cut their net long position by 4,453 contracts through long liquidation and modest new short selling. Their net exposure fell from 12.3% to 7.2% of open interest.
Leveraged money moved in the opposite direction, improving by 8,166 contracts through new longs and substantial short covering. However, total open interest fell by 3,565 contracts. The leveraged improvement therefore reflects a meaningful amount of position closure rather than broad new participation, leaving the Dow signal mixed.
Russell 2000
Asset managers moved from a modest net long position to a small net short of 637 contracts. Although they added 1,942 longs, they also added 10,145 shorts, producing a net deterioration of 8,203 contracts.
Leveraged money improved by 12,179 contracts but remained net short by 72,603. This improvement came primarily from covering 13,025 shorts while also liquidating 846 longs.
Open interest increased, but the category-level flow is better described as bearish pressure easing rather than new bullish conviction. A stronger signal would require leveraged long accumulation and renewed asset-manager demand.
VIX
Asset managers became more net short VIX futures as new short positions outpaced their increase in longs. Their net short reached 38,838 contracts, or 10.4% of open interest.
Leveraged money increased its net position by 7,129 contracts and moved from net short to net long. It added 12,203 longs while also adding 5,074 shorts, meaning fresh long demand was dominant but not one-sided.
Positioning reached the 100th percentile relative to both six-month and one-year history. This indicates an extreme historical positioning level, not certainty that volatility will rise.
Metals Positioning
Gold
The Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report is showing managed money remained net long 116,161 gold contracts, equal to 31.2% of open interest. The position declined by 3,930 contracts as modest new long buying was outweighed by 4,294 new shorts.
The weekly signal softened, but the one-month position remained 10,298 contracts stronger, supported by new longs and short covering.
Open interest also increased slightly. The setup remains structurally constructive, although managed-money crowding is elevated at the 85th percentile over six months. A stronger signal would require renewed long accumulation without a comparable increase in shorts.
Producer and merchant positioning became more net short, but this category should not be interpreted as a clean speculative signal because commercial hedging activity can materially affect its exposure.
Silver
Managed money reduced its silver net long by 581 contracts through limited long liquidation and new short selling. The category remained net long by 13,201 contracts, with positioning high relative to its six-month history.
Producer and merchant exposure also became more net short, although commercial hedging limits the directional value of that signal.
Total open interest fell by 4,105 contracts, indicating reduced participation. The weekly change is therefore mildly negative, but the fall in open interest suggests a broader position unwind rather than a large influx of fresh bearish capital.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin positioning diverged between asset managers and leveraged money. Asset managers improved by 385 contracts, but only 36 new longs were added. Most of the improvement came from covering 349 shorts, so this does not represent substantial asset-manager accumulation.
Leveraged money became more bearish by 1,425 contracts through 1,048 contracts of long liquidation and 377 new shorts. The category remained net short by 6,728 contracts, or 35.2% of open interest. Because open interest increased, the new short component carries more weight. The signal is mixed across categories but clearly weaker on the leveraged-money side.
Ether
Ether showed an even wider category divergence. Asset managers improved their net position by 929 contracts, driven mainly by 945 new longs. However, they remained net short by 2,109 contracts, so bearish pressure eased without producing a fully bullish structure.
Leveraged money deteriorated by 2,627 contracts after liquidating 2,218 longs and adding 409 shorts. Its net short expanded to 7,343 contracts, or 33.4% of open interest. With total open interest rising, the flows suggest fresh participation in opposing directions. Asset-manager improvement is constructive at the margin, but leveraged selling prevents confirmation of a durable risk-on trend.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
Asset managers increased their DXY net long by 1,363 contracts through both new long buying and short covering. Their net position reached 21,424 contracts, equal to 40.1% of open interest and the 100th percentile relative to both six-month and one-year history.
Leveraged money also improved by 1,121 contracts but remained net short. Its change came from both sides de-risking, with short covering exceeding long liquidation. Total open interest fell by 938 contracts, so the broader move reflects position closure as well as directional improvement.
The dollar setup is constructive but crowded, and stronger confirmation would require rising open interest alongside continued long buying.
