CFTC COT Report Analysis Week of July 14, 2026
The July 14, 2026 CFTC Commitments of Traders report points to weaker equity positioning, stronger gold demand and mixed signals across crypto, volatility and the U.S. dollar. Nasdaq carries the clearest bearish composition, while gold shows the most convincing combination of improving speculative positioning and rising participation.
The report reflects positions held on Tuesday, July 14, and was published later in the week under the CFTC’s 2026 COT release schedule. The CFTC normally publishes data from the preceding Tuesday on Friday afternoon, although federal holidays can delay publication.
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Takeaways
- Equity-futures open interest declined across the four major index contracts.
- Nasdaq leveraged money added shorts and liquidated longs over both one week and one month.
- Russell 2000 asset managers improved sharply, but leveraged money did not confirm the move.
- VIX participation increased, with leveraged money more net long and asset managers more net short.
- Gold managed money added longs and covered shorts, supported by rising open interest.
- Silver managed money reduced exposure primarily through long liquidation.
- Crypto open interest rose, but leveraged positioning remained cautious.
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
Asset managers remained heavily net long at 938,573 contracts, equivalent to 33.3% of open interest. However, their net position fell by 30,653 contracts during the week.
The deterioration came from 16,532 contracts of long liquidation alongside 14,121 new shorts. This is a clearly less constructive flow rather than routine position unwinding.
Leveraged money remained net short by 353,965 contracts. Its one-month net position improved by 139,503 contracts, but that improvement was driven mainly by 166,789 shorts being covered while 27,286 longs were also liquidated. Bearish pressure eased, but fresh bullish conviction remains limited.
Open interest declined by only 496 contracts out of more than 2.8 million. That is effectively flat and should not be presented as meaningful market-wide money leaving the contract.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq produced the clearest bearish equity-positioning signal.
Asset managers reduced their net long by 5,405 contracts as they liquidated 4,965 longs and added 440 shorts. Leveraged money became 8,363 contracts more net short through 2,163 contracts of long liquidation and 6,200 new shorts.
The one-month leveraged-money flow was also bearish. Longs fell by 19,888 contracts while shorts increased by 13,232, producing a 33,120-contract deterioration in the net position.
Open interest fell by 2,770 contracts, or approximately 0.9%. The combination of lower participation, long liquidation and new short selling leaves Nasdaq positioning notably cautious.
Dow Jones
Dow asset managers remained modestly net long at 5,613 contracts. Their weekly net decline of 169 contracts came almost entirely from 170 new shorts, while longs were effectively unchanged.
Leveraged money remained net short and weakened by 997 contracts during the week. Both longs and shorts declined, but the 2,104-contract reduction in longs was larger than the 1,107-contract reduction in shorts. This is better described as long liquidation dominating a broader unwind.
The one-month leveraged-money picture was more constructive because new longs and short covering improved the net position by 7,366 contracts. However, weekly open interest fell by approximately 4%, the largest contraction among the major equity contracts. The improvement therefore lacks confirmation from expanding participation.
Russell 2000
Russell 2000 asset managers improved their net position by 8,005 contracts through 4,852 new longs and 3,153 contracts of short covering. The group moved from slightly net short to a net long of 7,368 contracts.
That is the strongest positive weekly asset-manager flow among the equity contracts. Positioning also remains relatively low compared with its one-year history, reducing immediate crowding concerns.
The signal is mixed because leveraged money moved 16,135 contracts more net short. Most of the change came from 15,649 contracts of long liquidation rather than aggressive new short selling.
A stronger confirmation would require continued asset-manager buying alongside stabilization or improvement in leveraged-money positioning.
VIX
VIX open interest rose by 16,241 contracts, an increase of roughly 4.4%. This represents meaningful fresh participation.
Leveraged money increased its net long by 5,077 contracts. Both longs and shorts increased, but longs grew by 15,008 compared with 9,931 new shorts. The category’s net position is at an extreme high relative to its own recent history.
Asset managers moved 4,491 contracts more net short because they added 6,417 shorts compared with 1,926 new longs. Their net position is consequently at an extreme low relative to its history.
The divergence matters more than the headline. Leveraged traders increased net long-volatility exposure while asset managers increased net short-volatility exposure. This does not provide a clean standalone signal for the direction of equities.
Metals Positioning
Gold
Managed money increased its gold net long by 4,618 contracts. The improvement combined 1,964 new longs with 2,654 contracts of short covering.
Open interest rose by 11,913 contracts, or approximately 3.2%, providing better evidence of fresh participation than in most other markets covered by the report.
The setup is constructive, although managed-money positioning is already at the 96th percentile of its six-month range. Positioning can remain elevated, but the increasingly crowded structure raises the risk that future gains become more dependent on continued buying.
Producer and merchant positioning became less net short during the week. However, commercial hedging can materially influence this category, so the move should not be treated as a clean speculative bullish signal.
Silver
Managed money reduced its silver net long by 1,700 contracts. Although both longs and shorts declined, almost the entire net deterioration came from 1,740 contracts of long liquidation.
The one-month flow was also weaker, combining 1,185 contracts of long liquidation with 199 new shorts.
Producer and merchant positioning became less net short through new longs and short covering. As with gold, commercial hedging limits its value as a standalone directional indicator.
Open interest increased by only 164 contracts, or approximately 0.2%. That is effectively flat, meaning silver lacks the fresh-participation confirmation visible in gold.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin open interest rose by 548 contracts, an increase of approximately 2.9%, indicating fresh participation at the overall contract level.
Asset managers improved their net long by 430 contracts, but the composition was not genuine accumulation. Long exposure fell by 11 contracts while 441 shorts were covered.
The same pattern is visible over one month: asset managers reduced both longs and shorts, with the larger reduction in shorts producing a modest net improvement.
Leveraged money became 774 contracts more net short during the week through a combination of long liquidation and new short selling. The signal is therefore mixed to cautious. Asset-manager bearish pressure eased, but fresh asset-manager buying was absent and leveraged traders increased downside exposure.
Ether
Ether asset managers improved their net position by 703 contracts through 118 new longs and 585 contracts of short covering.
This is more constructive than the Bitcoin asset-manager flow because it includes some new long buying. However, asset managers remain net short by 1,406 contracts, so the broader structure is still cautious.
Leveraged money became 625 contracts more net short because shorts increased by 1,051 while longs rose by only 426. Open interest increased by approximately 3.6%, confirming fresh participation, but that participation was directionally divided.
Bearish pressure eased among asset managers while leveraged traders added net bearish exposure. This does not confirm a durable broad-based bullish shift.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
Asset managers increased their DXY net long by 615 contracts to 22,039, equivalent to 41.3% of total open interest.
Long exposure rose by 1,799 contracts while shorts also increased by 1,184. The improvement therefore reflects a long bias within broader two-sided position building.
Asset-manager positioning is at the 100th percentile over both six months and one year. The group is strongly net long, but the position is also extremely elevated relative to its own recent history.
Leveraged money moved 412 contracts more net short as long liquidation exceeded short covering. Open interest declined by only 91 contracts, making total participation effectively flat. The report shows strong category divergence rather than a unified dollar signal.
