CFTC COT Report Analysis: Week of August 25, 2026
The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data shows a divided market and not than a broad shift towards or away from risk.
Compared with last week’s CFTC COT analysis, the most important changes were the reversal in S&P leveraged-fund flow, continued Nasdaq improvement and the widening divergence between Bitcoin and Ether.
The report reflects positions held on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. COT data is normally released later in the week, so it should be treated as positioning context.
Takeaways
- Nasdaq recorded the clearest constructive equity shift.
- S&P 500 leveraged funds added 18,057 shorts and liquidated 12,165 longs.
- Dow asset managers became more constructive, but leveraged funds moved from net long to net short.
- Russell 2000 short covering did not amount to broad new bullish conviction.
- Gold remained constructive, supported by rising open interest, but managed-money positioning was extremely crowded.
- Silver positioning improved despite declining market-wide participation.
- Bitcoin attracted modest asset-manager buying, while leveraged funds remained defensive.
- Ether recorded the strongest new leveraged-fund short pressure.
- Both tracked DXY categories remained net long, but their weekly flows diverged.
Equity Futures Positioning
The equity, VIX, cryptocurrency and DXY figures are based on the CFTC’s Traders in Financial Futures report, which separates positions into categories including asset managers, leveraged funds and dealers.
S&P 500
Asset managers remained strongly net long at 945,066 contracts, equivalent to 31.5% of open interest and their weekly net position fell by 5,220 contracts as 3,273 new longs were outweighed by 8,493 additional shorts.
The change was modest relative to the category’s overall position as sset managers remain structurally long but became slightly less constructive at the margin.
Leveraged funds delivered the a important signal – their net short increased by 30,222 contracts to −289,751 through 12,165 contracts of long liquidation and 18,057 new shorts.
This was genuine bearish flow involving both the closure of longs and the establishment of new short exposure, and not a deterioration caused only by position reduction.
Total open interest fell by 106,444 contracts, showing substantial market-wide contraction and even so, the leveraged-fund activity included meaningful new short selling. A stronger bearish confirmation would require short selling to continue while overall participation stabilises or begins rising.
Nasdaq produced the most constructive equity signal as asset managers added 3,830 longs and covered 1,215 shorts, improving their net long by 5,045 contracts to 71,945.
Leveraged funds added 6,228 longs and covered 14,453 shorts, reducing their net short by 20,681 contracts to −36,734. Do note that, bearish pressure eased quite a bit, but the category remains net short and most of the improvement came from short covering and not new long buying.
The one-month composition is also less convincing than the headline improvement suggests. Leveraged funds are 19,922 contracts less net short over the month, but both longs and shorts declined over that period. All of this is better described as positions unwinding, with a larger reduction in shorts.
Open interest increased by only 331 contracts during the latest week, providing limited confirmation of broad fresh participation. A stronger signal would require continued asset-manager buying, more leveraged-fund long accumulation and a meaningful expansion in open interest.
Dow Jones
Dow asset managers remained modestly net long at 5,613 contracts and their weekly net decline of 169 contracts came almost entirely from 170 new shorts, while longs were effectively unchanged.
Leveraged money remained net short and weakened by 997 contracts during the week. Both longs and shorts declined, but the 2,104-contract reduction in longs was larger than the 1,107-contract reduction in shorts. This can be described as long liquidation dominating a broader unwind.
The one-month leveraged-money picture was more constructive because new longs and short covering improved the net position by 7,366 contracts. However, weekly open interest fell by approximately 4%, the largest contraction among the major equity contracts. The improvement therefore lacks confirmation from expanding participation.
Russell 2000
Asset managers reduced their Russell 2000 net long by 2,000 contracts. Both longs and shorts declined, but the loss of 3,717 longs was larger than the 1,717 contracts of short covering.
This was broad de-risking led by long liquidation rather than aggressive new short selling. Asset managers remain net long by 11,515 contracts, but became less constructive at the margin.
Leveraged funds improved their net position by 2,940 contracts, but 2,813 contracts came from short covering and only 127 from new longs. The move therefore reflects position closure rather than meaningful new small-cap accumulation.
Leveraged funds remain heavily net short at −97,678 contracts. Their position sits at the eighth percentile of the six-month range and the fourth percentile of the one-year range, showing that exposure remains extremely bearish relative to their own history.
Open interest fell by 13,058 contracts. Bearish pressure eased slightly during the week, but fresh bullish conviction remains limited. A stronger signal would require meaningful long buying alongside renewed open-interest growth.
VIX
VIX positioning showed broad contraction rather than a clear directional volatility signal.
Asset managers improved their net position by 4,274 contracts, but this resulted from closing 8,289 shorts while also liquidating 4,015 longs. They remain net short by 22,888 contracts.
Leveraged funds moved 11,050 contracts more negative because they liquidated 16,275 longs while covering only 5,225 shorts. They now hold a 30,143-contract net short.
Both categories reduced gross exposure, meaning the changes were driven primarily by positions being closed. Open interest also fell by 39,090 contracts, reinforcing the position-unwinding interpretation.
There is no clear evidence of fresh demand for volatility exposure in this report. COT exposure should also be compared with current volatility pricing and term structure rather than used as a standalone signal. SmartFlow’s stock-market overview provides additional context on VIX term structure and broader risk conditions.
Metals Positioning
Gold, silver and crude oil use the CFTC’s disaggregated trader classifications. The CFTC disaggregated report methodology explains the distinction between managed money, swap dealers and producer or merchant categories.
Gold
Gold retained the strongest constructive medium-term positioning signal.
Managed money increased its net long by 3,099 contracts to 144,747. Long exposure rose by 5,224 contracts, while shorts also increased by 2,125. Both sides were adding exposure, but the larger increase in longs produced a constructive net shift.
The one-month composition is stronger. Managed-money positioning improved by 24,952 contracts, almost entirely through 24,726 new longs rather than short covering.
Open interest rose by 21,697 contracts during the latest week, supporting the view that fresh participation was entering the market.
The main risk is crowding because managed-money positioning reached the 100th percentile of its six-month range and the 90th percentile of its one-year range. The setup remains constructive, but exposure is already unusually elevated relative to the category’s own history.
Producer and merchant positioning became 4,797 contracts more net short, mainly through 4,775 additional shorts. However, commercial hedging requirements mean producer positioning should not be interpreted as a straightforward speculative signal.
Silver
Silver managed money added 1,888 longs and covered 490 shorts, improving its net long by 2,378 contracts to 14,073.
The one-month change was also constructive, with 3,482 new longs alongside 1,409 contracts of short covering. Unlike an improvement caused entirely by position closure, this included genuine new long accumulation.
However, total open interest declined by 6,316 contracts. Managed-money positioning improved at the category level, but it occurred within a contracting overall market.
Crowding also rose by 19 percentile points during the week, placing managed-money positioning at the 96th percentile of its six-month range. The one-year percentile remains lower at 63, showing that the extreme is more pronounced over the shorter historical window.
Silver therefore has constructive flow, but weaker open-interest confirmation and increasing crowding risk. A stronger signal would require continued long buying alongside renewed growth in market-wide open interest.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin asset managers added 201 longs and covered 12 shorts, increasing their net long by 213 contracts to 2,945.
This represents modest genuine accumulation because the improvement was driven mainly by new long buying. However, the absolute change remains relatively small.
The one-month improvement requires more caution. Asset managers are 646 contracts more net long over the month, but both longs and shorts declined during that period. The monthly improvement therefore came mainly from the closure of shorts rather than persistent accumulation.
Leveraged funds became 659 contracts more net short during the latest week. They liquidated 1,338 longs while also covering 679 shorts, making the move a broader reduction in exposure led by long liquidation.
Leveraged funds now hold an 8,114-contract net short, equivalent to 35.6% of total open interest. Open interest increased by 814 contracts, confirming additional market participation, but the signals from the two trader categories remain divided.
A stronger constructive signal would require continued asset-manager buying alongside stabilisation or improvement in leveraged-fund positioning.
Ether
Ether recorded the sharpest divergence between asset managers and leveraged funds.
Asset managers improved their net position by 875 contracts through 270 new longs and 605 contracts of short covering. This was a constructive weekly change, although the category remains net short by 2,199 contracts.
Leveraged funds moved decisively in the opposite direction. They liquidated 993 longs and added 2,962 new shorts, worsening their net position by 3,955 contracts to −8,368.
This is a clearly bearish flow composition rather than simple de-risking. It combined the closure of existing long exposure with meaningful new short selling.
Ether open interest increased by 4,415 contracts, indicating substantial fresh participation. Unlike a bearish change occurring alongside declining open interest, the leveraged-fund move included new shorts within an expanding market.
The signal would become more constructive if leveraged-fund short selling eased while asset managers continued adding longs. Further new short selling alongside rising open interest would instead strengthen the defensive positioning structure.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
Both tracked DXY categories remain net long, but their weekly flows diverged.
Asset managers reduced their net long by 980 contracts to 14,018. They liquidated 929 longs and added 51 shorts, making the composition modestly bearish.
The one-month trend is more substantial. Asset managers reduced their net position by 7,594 contracts through 7,101 contracts of long liquidation and 493 additional shorts.
Leveraged funds moved in the opposite direction during the latest week. They added 1,146 longs and 68 shorts, increasing their net long by 1,078 contracts to 9,188.
Leveraged-fund positioning is now at the 100th percentile of both its six-month and one-year ranges. This means the category is unusually net long relative to its own recent history, increasing the risk of a positioning unwind if the trade reverses.
Open interest increased by only 28 contracts, providing virtually no confirmation of broad new participation. The structural alignment of both categories remains supportive, but asset-manager liquidation and extreme leveraged-fund crowding make the marginal signal less convincing.
How Traders Can Use This Data in Practice
The SmartFlow COT dashboard can be used to compare net positioning, weekly flow and historical crowding across markets. Traders should then follow this process:
- Check the one-week and one-month net-position changes.
- Identify whether the move came from long buying, short covering, long liquidation or new short selling.
- Compare the positioning change with the movement in open interest.
- Check crowding against the category’s historical positioning.
- Compare related markets for confirmation or divergence.
- Use price action, macro context and risk management before making a trading decision.
For additional background on positioning, volatility and institutional-market signals, see the SmartFlow Financial Markets Education Hub.