CFTC COT Report Analysis – Week of August 18, 2026
The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data shows a selective improvement in risk appetite rather than a broad risk-on shift. Nasdaq futures produced the clearest constructive change, but positioning across the S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 remained divided between asset managers and leveraged funds.
Gold remained strongly supported but increasingly active, while crypto and DXY flows lacked clean confirmation from new long buying.
The report reflects positions held on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. According to the official CFTC release schedule, COT reports are normally published later in the week, meaning the data should be treated as positioning context rather than a real-time trading signal.
Equity Futures Positioning
The equity-index figures are based on the CFTC’s financial futures positioning report for August 18, 2026.
S&P 500
Asset managers increased their S&P 500 net long by 10,011 contracts to 950,286. The composition was constructive, with 9,496 new longs alongside 515 contracts of short covering.
The broader confirmation was weaker because total open interest fell by 50,343 contracts. Leveraged funds also reduced both sides of their book, cutting 38,097 longs and 34,216 shorts. Their net position became slightly more bearish at −259,529 because long liquidation was larger than short covering.
The signal is therefore modestly constructive from asset managers but not broadly confirmed. Leveraged positioning sits in the 88th percentile of its six-month history despite remaining net short. This means the position is less bearish than much of its recent history, not that leveraged funds are heavily net long.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq delivered the strongest weekly equity signal. Asset managers improved their net long by 6,509 contracts, while leveraged funds reduced their net short by 27,069 to −57,415.
The composition was also stronger than in the other indices. Asset managers added 1,386 longs and covered 5,123 shorts, while leveraged funds added 10,306 longs and covered 16,763 shorts.
Open interest rose by 15,865 contracts, supporting the view that the change involved fresh participation alongside short covering. This is a meaningful improvement from the defensive Nasdaq positioning seen in the August 7 COT report.
The one-month picture is less decisive because asset managers remain 4,272 contracts less net long over that period. A stronger confirmation would require continued asset-manager long buying rather than the improvement remaining dependent on shorts being closed.
Dow Jones
Dow positioning showed the clearest disagreement between trader categories. Asset managers reduced their net long by 5,568 contracts through 1,919 contracts of long liquidation and 3,649 new shorts.
Leveraged funds moved in the opposite direction, adding 2,424 longs and covering 763 shorts. This shifted the category from modestly net short to 2,027 contracts net long.
Leveraged positioning reached the 100th percentile of both its six-month and one-year ranges, but the absolute position represents only 2.2% of open interest. The extreme percentile therefore describes a large move relative to recent positioning history, not an unusually large absolute long.
With open interest increasing by only 278 contracts, the Dow signal is better described as rotation between trader categories than broad new conviction.
Russell 2000
Russell 2000 asset managers increased their net long by 3,581 contracts. They added 4,099 longs and 518 shorts, meaning the positive net change was driven primarily by new long buying.
Leveraged funds moved the other way. They added 1,528 longs but opened 6,202 new shorts, pushing their net short to 100,618 contracts.
That leveraged position is at the fourth percentile of its six-month history and the second percentile of its one-year history. In other words, leveraged positioning is close to the most bearish end of its recent historical range.
Open interest rose by 6,837 contracts, indicating fresh participation. However, the direction of that participation was divided. The asset-manager signal is constructive, but the new leveraged-fund short selling prevents a clean bullish interpretation.
Metals Positioning
Gold and silver positioning comes from the CFTC’s disaggregated commodity futures report, which separates managed money from producers, merchants and other market participants.
Gold
Gold managed money increased its net long by 3,986 contracts to 141,648. New long buying totalled 5,961 contracts, although managed money also added 1,975 shorts.
Open interest rose by 5,951 contracts, supporting the presence of fresh participation. The one-month change was also constructive, with the managed-money net long increasing by 16,817 contracts through a combination of new longs and short covering.
The main limitation is crowding. Gold managed-money positioning sits at the 100th percentile of its six-month history and the 88th percentile of its one-year range.
The setup remains constructive, although positioning is already elevated and therefore more exposed to profit-taking or long liquidation if the trend weakens. This futures positioning can be compared with SmartFlow’s recent gold and precious-metals options-flow analysis for additional confirmation across related instruments.
Producer and merchant positioning became 1,826 contracts more net short, but commercial hedging requirements mean this should not be treated as a clean speculative signal.
Silver
Silver managed-money positioning improved by only 537 contracts to a net long of 11,695. The composition was not driven by new buying: longs fell by 423 while shorts declined by 960.
This is better described as both sides de-risking, with short covering producing the small net improvement. Open interest increased by 4,990 contracts across the wider market, but the highlighted managed-money category was reducing gross exposure.
Silver’s six-month crowding percentile rose by 19 points to the 77th percentile. Even so, the limited absolute change and absence of new managed-money long buying mean silver does not provide strong confirmation of the more constructive gold signal.
Energy Positioning
Crude Oil
Managed money reduced its crude-oil net position by 2,260 contracts to a net short of 10,696. Both longs and shorts declined, but the 2,711-contract reduction in longs was larger than the 451 contracts of short covering.
The weekly move is therefore better described as long liquidation within a wider de-risking process rather than aggressive new short selling. Open interest rose by 18,193 contracts, but that fresh market-level participation was not reflected in stronger managed-money positioning.
Over one month, managed money has improved by 6,512 contracts through new longs and short covering. The current position also sits relatively high within its recent historical range despite remaining net short.
The short-term signal has weakened, but the one-month structure has not fully reversed. Producer and merchant exposure increased significantly, although commercial positioning can reflect physical-market hedging and should not be interpreted as a straightforward directional trade.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin asset managers improved their net long by 498 contracts to 2,732. However, longs declined by 210 and shorts fell by 708, meaning the improvement came from short covering rather than new accumulation.
Leveraged funds became 409 contracts more net short as they cut 500 longs and covered only 91 shorts. Open interest increased by 596 contracts, but neither highlighted category produced a convincing new-long signal.
Bitcoin positioning is therefore mixed. Asset-manager bearish pressure eased, but fresh bullish conviction remains limited. Confirmation would require asset-manager longs to rise rather than the net position improving mainly because shorts are being closed.
This is why institutional activity needs to be broken down by trade composition rather than interpreted from the headline net change alone, as explained in SmartFlow’s guide to understanding institutional flow.
Ether
Ether positioning remained cautious. Asset managers were still net short 3,074 contracts and improved by only 43 during the week as both longs and shorts were reduced.
Leveraged funds became 400 contracts more net short because long liquidation exceeded short covering. Both categories therefore reduced gross exposure rather than building strong new directional positions.
The one-month leveraged-fund improvement of 2,662 contracts remains notable, but this week interrupted that trend. Asset managers are also 656 contracts more bearish over the month, primarily because of long liquidation.
A durable constructive signal would require fresh asset-manager accumulation alongside renewed leveraged-fund short covering. Neither occurred this week.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
DXY asset managers remained net long 14,998 contracts but reduced their position by 1,529. This was driven mainly by the liquidation of 1,658 longs.
Leveraged money increased its net long by 2,341 contracts to 8,110, but the composition matters more than the headline number. Leveraged funds cut 199 longs and covered 2,540 shorts, meaning the improvement came entirely from position closure rather than fresh dollar buying.
Open interest fell by 1,616 contracts, reinforcing the de-risking interpretation. Leveraged positioning is at the 100th percentile of both historical windows, but this elevated reading is not being supported by new long accumulation.
The two categories are aligned in holding net-long positions, but their weekly flows are not aligned. DXY positioning remains positively skewed, although the current report does not confirm a fresh bullish expansion.
