CFTC COT Report Analysis Week of August 14, 2026
The latest CFTC positioning data shows a divided market as leveraged funds became less bearish on the S&P 500, but Nasdaq and Russell 2000 positioning weakened.
Compared with last week’s CFTC COT report, the most important changes were the sharp reduction in leveraged-fund S&P shorts and the reversal in leveraged-fund VIX positioning.
The report reflects positions held on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. According to the official CFTC COT methodology.
Takeaways
- S&P 500 leveraged funds covered 51,923 shorts and added 9,231 longs.
- Falling S&P open interest limits the strength of the bullish interpretation.
- Nasdaq weakness was driven by new asset-manager shorts and leveraged-fund long liquidation.
- Russell 2000 leveraged funds added new shorts as open interest rose.
- Gold saw constructive new long buying but is crowded over six months.
- VIX and crypto positioning remained divided across trader categories.
- DXY positioning is net long but increasingly concentrated.
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
Leveraged-money positioning improved by 61,154 contracts to a net short of 255,648 but the composition is more important than the headline number as leveraged funds added 9,231 longs but covered 51,923 shorts. Bearish pressure eased a lot, although short covering generated most of the improvement.
Asset managers improved by 5,218 contracts, but both longs and shorts declined. Shorts fell faster, so this was position unwinding rather than new accumulation.
Total open interest fell by 16,000 contracts. The overall signal is tactically constructive, but it does not confirm broad fresh bullish participation.
Leveraged-money crowding reached the 92nd percentile over six months and 96th over one year despite the category remaining net short.
Stronger confirmation would require continued long buying alongside stable or rising open interest. The COT data should also be compared with our market analysis before forming a shorter-term view.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq positioning weakened across both categories.
Asset managers fell by 3,085 contracts after adding 4,196 longs but 7,281 shorts and this represents two-sided participation with a modest bearish tilt because the increase in shorts was larger.
Leveraged funds deteriorated by 10,553 contracts, but they did not add new shorts during the week. Instead, they liquidated 24,592 longs and covered 14,039 shorts.
Both sides de-risked, with the larger reduction in longs making the net position more bearish.
Open interest fell by 31,953 contracts, reinforcing that this was position reduction.
The one-month picture is more concerning though. Asset managers deteriorated by 11,856 contracts through long liquidation and new shorts, while leveraged funds fell by 23,047 through a similar combination.
Both categories are positioned near the bottom of their historical ranges and asset managers are at the 19th six-month percentile and 10th one-year percentile, while leveraged funds are at the fourth and second percentiles respectively.
These low readings show that positioning is historically cautious, but they do not predict an automatic rebound. A stronger bullish confirmation would require asset-manager long buying, leveraged-fund short covering and stabilising open interest.
Dow Jones
Asset managers remained net long by 8,029 contracts but declined by 574 during the week. They added both longs and shorts, with the larger increase in shorts producing a small deterioration.
Leveraged funds improved by 1,875 contracts to a relatively small net short of 1,160. However, they closed 4,294 longs and 6,169 shorts, meaning the improvement came from greater short covering rather than new long demand.
Open interest fell by 1,793 contracts. The Dow setup is therefore mildly constructive based on the level of net positioning, but the weekly flow is better described as position management.
Asset managers remain at the 92nd percentile of their six-month range. Leveraged funds are at the 88th percentile over six months and 94th over one year, even though they remain marginally net short.
Fresh confirmation would require new long buying and expanding open interest rather than further position closure.
Russell 2000
Asset-manager positioning improved by 4,125 contracts, but longs declined by 1,149 while shorts fell by 5,274. This was short covering within broader de-risking, not new small-cap accumulation.
Leveraged funds moved 10,381 contracts more bearish after liquidating 2,799 longs and adding 7,582 shorts. Unlike the S&P and Dow, this included genuine new short pressure.
Open interest rose by 1,147 contracts, providing more evidence of fresh participation than in the other equity contracts.
Leveraged funds are now net short 95,944 contracts and sit at the fourth percentile of their six-month range and second percentile over one year. Their positioning is therefore extremely bearish relative to its own history.
Asset managers remain modestly net long by 9,934 contracts, but their improvement was created by short covering rather than new buying.
A bullish change would require leveraged-fund short covering alongside actual asset-manager long accumulation. Until then, Russell positioning remains one of the more defensive equity signals in the report.
VIX
VIX open interest rose by 12,317 contracts, but the two main categories moved in opposite directions.
Asset managers added 4,559 longs and covered 2,037 shorts, improving their net position by 6,596. They nevertheless remain net short 27,104 contracts.
Leveraged funds liquidated 11,415 longs and added 4,485 shorts, deteriorating by 15,900 contracts. This moved the category from a small net long in the previous report to a net short of 12,127.
This is a clear short-volatility shift from leveraged funds, but it is being opposed by greater asset-manager volatility exposure.
The increase in open interest indicates fresh but opposing participation rather than a clear directional consensus.
Leveraged-fund crowding remains at the 81st percentile over six months and 90th over one year despite the group being net short. This shows why a high VIX crowding percentile should not be interpreted as proof that leveraged funds are outright long volatility.
A stronger volatility signal would require leveraged funds to stop adding shorts and begin rebuilding longs. Continued asset-manager demand without that confirmation leaves the overall VIX signal mixed.
Metals Positioning
Gold
Managed money increased its net-long gold position by 6,896 contracts to 137,662.
Funds added 8,825 longs and 1,929 shorts, so the improvement came from genuine long accumulation rather than short covering alone.
Open interest increased by 28,758 contracts, supporting the fresh-participation interpretation. Gold therefore has one of the cleaner constructive positioning structures in the report.
The main risk is crowding. Managed-money positioning is at the 100th percentile of its six-month range and 88th percentile over one year. The position is extremely elevated relative to the recent six-month window.
Producers and merchants added 9,057 shorts, but commercial positioning can reflect hedging requirements and should not be treated as a clean speculative signal.
Gold remains constructive, but elevated crowding increases the potential impact of any future long liquidation. The futures positioning can also be compared with SmartFlow’s separate gold analysis and price target.
Silver
Silver failed to confirm the strength in gold.
Managed money liquidated 509 longs and added 307 shorts, reducing its net-long position by 816 contracts.
Open interest increased by 3,128 contracts, so the modest deterioration occurred alongside expanding participation rather than a broad contraction in positions.
Managed-money crowding declined by 27 percentile points during the week but remains in the middle of its historical range. The current net long of 11,158 represents 9.7% of total open interest.
Producer and merchant positioning also became more negative through 699 contracts of long liquidation and 2,167 new shorts. However, commercial hedging limits the directional value of this category.
A stronger silver signal would require renewed managed-money long buying and an improvement in net positioning. For now, gold has the cleaner speculative setup.
Energy Positioning
Crude Oil
Managed money remains marginally net short crude oil by 8,436 contracts.
The weekly net position deteriorated by 1,346 as funds added 271 longs but 1,617 shorts. This represents modest new bearish pressure rather than broad long liquidation.
The one-month trend remains more constructive. Managed money improved by 15,784 contracts over that period through 10,719 new longs and 5,065 contracts of short covering.
Open interest increased by 14,969 contracts this week, indicating expanding participation.
The managed-money net position is at the 96th percentile over six months and 98th over one year despite remaining slightly net short. This means positioning is near the bullish end of its own historical range, not that funds hold a large outright long.
Producer and merchant net positioning improved by 12,400 contracts, but the category added both longs and shorts. Because these positions can reflect commercial hedging and operational exposure, they should not be treated as a clean directional signal.
The latest week shows managed-money momentum stalling rather than a complete reversal of the more constructive monthly trend.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin asset managers reduced their net long by 308 contracts.
Long exposure was almost unchanged, falling by only 23 contracts, while 285 new shorts accounted for most of the deterioration. Asset managers remain net long by 2,234 contracts, but their position sits at only the eighth percentile over six months and fourth over one year.
Leveraged funds improved by 180 contracts after adding 743 longs and 563 shorts. This was fresh two-sided participation with a slight constructive tilt, not short covering.
Open interest rose by 1,075 contracts, confirming that participation expanded during the week.
The signal remains mixed because leveraged-money positioning improved marginally while asset managers did not accumulate. Leveraged funds also remain heavily net short by 7,046 contracts, equivalent to 32.9% of open interest.
A stronger Bitcoin confirmation would require asset-manager long buying alongside a meaningful reduction in the leveraged-fund net short.
Ether
Ether asset managers improved by 500 contracts after adding 405 longs and covering 95 shorts. This is constructive weekly flow, although the category remains net short by 3,117 contracts.
The one-month trend is still weaker. Asset managers deteriorated by 1,711 contracts over that period through long liquidation and new shorts.
Leveraged funds added 638 longs but also added 1,412 shorts, leaving their net position 774 contracts more bearish during the week. They remain net short by 4,013 contracts.
Open interest rose by 1,560 contracts, confirming fresh participation but not a unified direction.
Leveraged funds have improved by 3,955 contracts over one month, largely through short covering, but the latest week interrupted that trend.
The weekly improvement from asset managers is encouraging, but it does not yet reverse the weaker monthly trend or receive confirmation from leveraged funds.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
Asset managers remain net long by 16,527 DXY contracts but reduced their position by 1,568.
Almost the entire move came from liquidating 1,621 longs, while shorts were broadly unchanged. Over one month, their net long has declined by 5,512 contracts, again primarily through long liquidation.
Leveraged money improved by 1,925 contracts to a net long of 5,769, but this was caused by closing 2,797 shorts while also liquidating 872 longs.
The leveraged-money improvement therefore reflects position closure rather than fresh dollar buying.
Open interest fell by 2,624 contracts, reinforcing that interpretation.
Both categories are now net long, but leveraged-money positioning is at the 100th percentile over both six months and one year. Asset managers also remain relatively elevated at the 83rd one-year percentile.
The dollar’s positioning structure remains positive, although confirmation is weakened by falling participation, asset-manager long liquidation and increasingly crowded leveraged-money exposure.
