CFTC COT Report Analysis Week of August 7, 2026
he latest CFTC positioning data shows a meaningful defensive shift within parts of the U.S. equity market, particularly Nasdaq and Russell 2000, alongside a sharp increase in leveraged-fund VIX exposure.
However, this is not a uniform cross-asset risk-off signal. Metals remain constructive, crypto positioning is heavily divided, and DXY’s apparent strength is largely being created by short covering.
The report reflects positions held on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. CFTC COT reports reflect Tuesday positioning and are normally published later in the week, so this data should be treated as positioning context rather than a real-time trading signal. CFTC COT methodology
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
S&P positioning deteriorated this week mainly among leveraged funds.
Asset managers remain heavily net long at 935,057 contracts but slipped by 2,534. They added 4,586 longs while adding 7,120 shorts. Over one month, their position has deteriorated by 34,169 contracts.
Asset managers are only at the 27th percentile over six months, down another eight percentile points this week, although they remain around the middle of their one-year range at the 52nd percentile.
Leveraged funds saw the much larger weekly move, becoming 34,446 contracts more net short as 75,139 new shorts overwhelmed 40,693 new longs.
Yet leveraged funds still sit at the 85th six-month and 92nd one-year percentiles. Despite being -316,802 contracts net short, their position remains less bearish relative to much of their recent history.
So this week’s S&P signal is bearish at the margin, but I would not describe leveraged-fund positioning itself as historically bearish. The important development is the speed of this week’s deterioration against a previously much stronger relative position.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq provides the clearest bearish positioning signal in the report.
Asset managers reduced their net long by 12,169 contracts through 6,810 contracts of long liquidation and 5,359 new shorts. Their six-month percentile collapsed by 38 points in just one week to the 27th percentile and stands at only the 13th percentile over one year.
Leveraged funds are even more defensive. They added 18,463 shorts against only 1,188 new longs, taking their net short to -73,931.
That leaves leveraged funds at just the 4th percentile over six months and 2nd percentile over one year.
Open interest simultaneously increased by 13,222 contracts.
Unlike several other markets this week, the weekly flow, monthly trend, open-interest expansion and historical percentile positioning all point in broadly the same direction. Nasdaq therefore has the strongest bearish positioning structure among the major indices.
Dow Jones
Dow positioning is much more balanced.
Asset managers improved by 2,438 contracts, although most of that improvement came from covering 2,115 shorts rather than adding new longs.
They now sit at the 92nd six-month percentile and 71st one-year percentile, meaning their net position is relatively elevated versus recent history.
Leveraged funds moved the opposite way, adding shorts faster than longs and becoming 1,870 contracts more net short. Their six-month percentile fell 12 points, but at 77th over six months and 88th over one year, their current net position also remains relatively high historically.
This is therefore better described as a weekly divergence within relatively elevated historical positioning, rather than a clean bearish Dow signal.
Russell 2000
Russell’s headline asset-manager improvement is misleading without looking underneath it.
Asset managers improved by 4,957 contracts, but they actually liquidated 3,818 longs while covering 8,775 shorts. Both sides were being reduced; shorts simply disappeared faster.
Their positioning remains unremarkable historically at the 42nd six-month and 23rd one-year percentiles.
Leveraged funds provide the much stronger signal. They liquidated 5,864 longs and added 4,780 new shorts, becoming 10,644 contracts more net short.
Their positioning has fallen to the 12th percentile over six months and 15th over one year.
Total Russell open interest changed by only 90 contracts, effectively nothing.
The combination of low leveraged-fund percentiles, long liquidation and new shorts makes Russell one of this week’s clearest defensive equity reads.
VIX
VIX contains perhaps the most striking weekly change.
Leveraged funds increased their net position by 16,062 contracts and moved from roughly 12,000 contracts net short to 3,773 net long.
The composition is important: funds added 14,961 new longs while also covering 1,101 shorts.
Leveraged-fund positioning now ranks at the 92nd percentile over six months and 96th over one year, while VIX open interest expanded by 26,493 contracts.
That provides much stronger confirmation than a simple short-covering move would.
However, the one-month net change is still -1,339 contracts, so this is principally a sharp tactical weekly reversal, not evidence of a sustained month-long build in VIX exposure.
Asset managers also remain net short VIX and sit at only the 15th/19th percentiles.
Metals Positioning
Gold
Gold remains constructive, but crowding is becoming increasingly important.
Managed money increased its net long by 10,971 contracts through 4,716 new longs and 6,255 contracts of short covering.
The category is now at the 100th percentile over six months, after jumping another 12 percentile points this week. Its one-year percentile is lower at 77th.
This means gold positioning is exceptionally elevated against the recent six-month window, although it is less extreme over the full year.
Total gold open interest fell by 13,052 contracts, which tempers the strength of the signal. Managed money added actual longs, but the wider futures market experienced a contraction in positions.
The setup therefore remains constructive, but it is also crowded enough that I would not treat the positioning as an early-stage long build.
Silver
Silver arguably has the cleaner weekly metal flow.
Managed money increased its net long by 2,792 contracts, with 2,526 coming from new longs and only 266 from short covering. Open interest simultaneously increased by 5,280 contracts.
Its six-month percentile surged an extraordinary 58 points in one week to the 85th percentile.
However, the one-year percentile is only 48th and managed money remains 1,227 contracts below its position one month ago.
That distinction matters. Silver has seen a very sharp recent positioning change, but it is not historically crowded over the longer window.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains cautious.
Asset managers improved by 243 contracts, but longs actually fell by 34 while shorts fell by 277. This is position unwinding, not new Bitcoin accumulation.
Their net position remains positive at 2,542 contracts, but it ranks at only the 19th percentile over six months and 10th over one year.
Leveraged funds moved 330 contracts more net short. They remain heavily net short at -7,226 contracts, equivalent to 35.5% of open interest.
Interestingly, their net position still ranks at the 73rd six-month and 87th one-year percentiles. In other words, they are heavily net short in absolute terms but less bearish than they have typically been historically.
With total open interest changing by only 33 contracts, there is little evidence of a major new participation regime.
Ether
Ether has one of the largest divergences between trader categories.
Asset managers remain net short at -3,617 and sit at only the 4th percentile over six months and 2nd over one year. Their positioning has also deteriorated by 1,508 contracts over the past month.
Leveraged funds are moving aggressively in the opposite direction. They improved by 2,197 contracts this week through 1,146 new longs and 1,051 contracts of short covering.
That takes leveraged funds to the 96th six-month and 98th one-year percentile.
But they are still net short at -3,239 contracts.
This is therefore a dramatic reduction in leveraged-fund bearishness, not yet an outright heavily bullish position. Falling total open interest of 3,480 contracts also weakens the case for describing this as broad fresh accumulation.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
DXY is perhaps the best example this week of why headline net positioning can be deceptive.
Leveraged funds improved by 5,456 contracts and moved from net short to +3,844 net long.
This pushed their positioning to the 100th percentile over both six months and one year.
But funds did not get there by aggressively buying dollars.
Longs actually fell by 1,256 contracts while 6,712 shorts were covered. Total DXY open interest simultaneously fell by 6,102 contracts.
So the 100th-percentile reading tells us that leveraged funds have their highest net position in the historical windows. The flow composition tells us how they got there: primarily by removing bearish positions.
Asset managers moved the other way, reducing their net long by 3,517 contracts through long liquidation and new shorts. Their six-month percentile fell 23 points in one week, although at 73rd over six months and 87th over one year, positioning remains historically elevated.
Both groups are now net long DXY.
