CFTC COT Report Analysis: Week of October 13, 2026
The CFTC COT data for Tuesday, October 13, 2026 shows a market with no uniform positioning shift. S&P 500 futures improved on both new long buying and short covering, but Nasdaq’s leveraged-fund improvement came from closing positions. Asset managers reduced Dow and Russell 2000 exposure, while speculative selling continued in gold and silver.
This is a snapshot of positions held on October 13, not a reading of positioning on October 20. COT reports reflect Tuesday’s positions and are released later in the week.
Equity Futures Positioning
S&P 500
S&P 500 futures produced the cleanest broad improvement among the major equity contracts. Asset managers increased their net long by 8,628 contracts to 910,298, adding 3,535 longs and covering 5,093 shorts. Leveraged funds improved by 6,865 contracts, also through new longs alongside short covering.
The composition is constructive, although leveraged funds remain net short 389,247 contracts. Open interest rose by just 862 contracts against a total of 2.8 million, so it offers little evidence of a sizeable market-wide participation increase. Asset-manager crowding remains at the 19th percentile of its six-month history despite a large net-long position in absolute terms.
A stronger signal would be continued leveraged-fund long buying and a more meaningful increase in open interest. A return to new shorts would weaken this week’s improvement.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq asset managers increased their net long by 1,425 contracts to 75,092, adding longs and covering shorts. Leveraged funds improved their net position by a larger 7,006 contracts, but the composition tells a different story: they cut 10,837 shorts while also liquidating 3,831 longs.
That is primarily short covering within broader position unwinding, rather than fresh leveraged-fund buying. Open interest fell 6,184 contracts, reinforcing the reduced-participation reading. Leveraged funds still hold a 7,287-contract net short, even though their net position sits at the 96th percentile of its six-month range. The percentile describes improvement relative to their own history; it does not make them outright bullish.
Asset-manager accumulation provides some support. For a stronger overall signal, leveraged funds would need to start adding longs while open interest stabilises or rises. Renewed short selling would reverse the recent improvement.
Dow Jones
The Dow shows one of the clearest disagreements between trader groups. Asset managers reduced their net long by 8,749 contracts to 10,873, liquidating 6,127 longs and adding 2,622 shorts. They remain net long, but became materially less constructive during the week.
Leveraged funds moved from net short to net long 2,843 contracts, an improvement of 7,010. Most of that shift came from covering 6,020 shorts; only 990 new longs were added. Their net position is at the 100th percentile of the reported six-month and one-year histories, yet the weekly move was driven mainly by short closure.
Open interest fell 5,208 contracts, which limits the case for broad new participation. Sustained leveraged-fund long buying alongside stabilising asset-manager exposure would strengthen the Dow setup. Further asset-manager liquidation would leave the apparent improvement more fragile.
Russell 2000
Russell 2000 asset managers reduced their net long by 15,284 contracts to 29,504. They liquidated 11,491 longs and added 3,793 shorts, a clear deterioration in weekly flow despite remaining net long.
Leveraged funds improved their net position by 13,357 contracts, chiefly by adding 16,675 longs. They also added 3,318 shorts, however, and remain net short 92,625 contracts. This is genuine new long activity within a still cautious broader position, not simply a short-covering move.
Open interest rose 21,792 contracts, making participation more convincing here than in the other equity contracts. The signal remains mixed because asset managers and leveraged funds moved in opposite directions. Further leveraged-fund long accumulation, especially alongside an end to asset-manager selling, would strengthen it. Continued asset-manager liquidation would weaken it.
VIX
VIX leveraged funds reduced their net position by 4,389 contracts and are now only net long 1,105. They liquidated 948 longs and added 3,441 shorts. Their six-month crowding reading is still high at the 81st percentile, but that does not imply a large absolute net-long volatility position.
Asset managers remain net short 77,295 VIX contracts. Their net short narrowed by 3,319 as they added longs and shorts, with the long increase larger. VIX open interest rose 7,204 contracts, indicating greater participation, though the two categories’ flows do not support one simple volatility conclusion.
Further leveraged-fund short additions would weaken their net-long position. Renewed leveraged-fund long accumulation would change the read; the current snapshot alone does not establish a lasting shift in volatility demand.
Metals Positioning
Gold
Gold managed money reduced its net long by 3,898 contracts to 107,089, liquidating 2,354 longs and adding 1,544 shorts. The one-month net change is a larger 26,027-contract decline, also made up of long liquidation and new shorts. Managed money remains substantially net long, but has become less constructive at the margin.
Open interest increased by only 236 contracts, a negligible change relative to the contract’s size. Producer/merchant net shorts narrowed by 1,064, mainly as gross short positions fell. Commercial activity can reflect hedging needs, so I would not treat that change as a clean speculative bullish signal.
Gold would need renewed managed-money long buying to improve the speculative picture. More long liquidation and new shorts would extend the current deterioration.
Silver
Silver managed money reduced its net long by 1,909 contracts to 5,619. It liquidated 655 longs and added 1,254 shorts. Over one month, its net position has fallen 7,505 contracts through the same combination.
At the 4th percentile of its six-month history, managed-money positioning is unusually low relative to its own recent range, although it remains modestly net long. Low crowding can create room for positioning to rebuild; it is not, by itself, evidence that buying has started.
Open interest rose 3,303 contracts as speculative positioning deteriorated. Producer/merchant net shorts narrowed slightly, but commercial hedging limits the directional inference. A firmer silver signal would require managed money to stop adding shorts and begin rebuilding longs.
Crude Oil
Crude oil managed money remains slightly net short 5,066 contracts. Its net position slipped by 532 this week as both longs and shorts declined, with long liquidation a little larger. This is better described as position unwinding than a meaningful fresh bearish push.
Producer/merchant net longs increased 17,053 contracts, mainly through 16,439 additional longs. Open interest rose 2,422. The commercial move is substantial, but that category can reflect business hedging, so it should not be read as a straightforward speculative oil call. A clearer speculative shift would require more decisive managed-money flows.
Crypto Futures Positioning
Bitcoin
Bitcoin leveraged funds reduced their net short by 1,021 contracts to 5,869. The improvement came from closing 1,217 shorts while also closing 196 longs. Short covering dominated; fresh leveraged-fund bullish conviction is not yet evident.
Asset managers remain net long 3,642 contracts. Their net position rose by 110, but they also reduced both longs and shorts, so the weekly improvement was not new accumulation. Their one-month net position is up 882, a more constructive backdrop than the latest weekly flow alone.
Open interest fell 672 contracts. Continued asset-manager long buying and a leveraged-fund shift from covering shorts to adding longs would strengthen the Bitcoin read. Without that, the narrower net short mainly reflects reduced exposure.
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning
DXY
DXY asset managers remain net long 18,164 contracts, but reduced that position by 932 as they cut both longs and shorts. The larger decline in longs made the weekly net change negative. They are still 2,362 contracts more net long than a month ago.
Leveraged funds increased their net long by 1,215 contracts to 2,078. They added 3,745 longs alongside 2,530 shorts, so gross positioning expanded on both sides, with long buying ahead. Open interest rose 665 contracts.
This leaves a divided weekly signal: asset managers are still structurally long but trimmed exposure, while leveraged funds increased net longs amid activity on both sides. Continued long additions across both groups would strengthen the dollar positioning case; further asset-manager reductions would preserve the divergence.
