COT Report Analysis: – Leveraged Money Turns Less Bearish as Dollar Positioning Hits Extremes – Week of June 9, 2026

The latest COT report shows a market where leveraged money became less bearish across major equity futures, but the signal is not broad-based across every trader group. In S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures, leveraged money improved positioning through a combination of new long positions and short covering. At the same time, asset managers remain long S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, but they have not been aggressively adding exposure across the board.

The biggest positioning risk is in the U.S. Dollar Index. Asset manager positioning in DXY futures is at an extreme high versus history, while leveraged money positioning is near the low end of its historical range. That does not mean the dollar has to reverse, but it does mean the dollar is one of the most stretched macro positioning setups in this report.

This week’s COT data should be read as a positioning map, not a prediction. It shows where traders added exposure, where shorts were reduced, where open interest confirms fresh money, and where current positioning sits compared with recent history.

Main Positioning Themes

• Equity futures improved, mainly because leveraged money added longs and reduced shorts.
• S&P 500 had the cleanest equity signal because leveraged money improved and open interest rose.
• Nasdaq improved sharply, but falling open interest makes the signal less clean.
• Dow remains mixed, with leveraged money improving but asset managers more cautious.
• VIX positioning moved further short volatility, especially among asset managers.
• Gold remains net long among managed money, but the weekly flow cooled.
• DXY is the standout macro crowding signal, with asset managers at the 100th percentile versus both 6-month and 1-year history.

Quick Note – What Percentile Positioning Means

Percentile positioning, or crowding, shows where the current net position sits compared with that trader group’s own historical range.

It does not automatically mean bullish or bearish by itself.

For example, a trader group can still be net short, but its percentile can be high if it is less short than usual. A trader group can also still be net long, but its percentile can be low if it has reduced exposure sharply compared with prior months.

Weekly Positioning Dashboard

Positioning vs History – What Is Actually Stretched?

The main takeaway from the percentile data is that the most stretched positioning is not in equities. It is in the U.S. Dollar Index, crypto, and parts of volatility positioning.

Equities improved but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq signals are more about leveraged money becoming less bearish than about every major trader group aggressively adding exposure.

Biggest Changes This Week

The biggest weekly move came from leveraged money in S&P 500 futures, where net positioning improved by 54,261 contracts.

That improvement came from two sources:

• Long contracts increased by 23,860
• Short contracts decreased by 30,401

That means leveraged money did not simply cover shorts. It both added new long exposure and reduced existing short exposure.

Nasdaq futures also saw a major leveraged money shift. Net positioning improved by 18,886 contracts, driven by:

• Long contracts increasing by 11,654
• Short contracts decreasing by 7,232

Dow futures showed the same pattern on a smaller scale. Leveraged money net positioning improved by 3,967 contracts, with longs rising and shorts falling.

VIX futures showed the opposite type of signal. Asset managers moved 13,878 contracts more net short, with the flow showing long liquidation plus new shorts. That suggests short-volatility exposure increased.

Gold managed money positioning fell by 6,316 contracts, showing that bullish momentum cooled even though managed money remains net long overall.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains the most important macro setup. Asset managers added 1,598 contracts over the week and are now at an extreme high versus history. Leveraged money moved 2,485 contracts lower and remains positioned near the low end of its historical range.

Equities – Leveraged Money Turns Less Bearish

Equity futures were the strongest part of the report, but the reason matters.

This was not simply a case of all major trader groups aggressively buying equities. The more accurate read is that leveraged money became less bearish across the major equity index futures.

That happened through two channels:

1. New long positions were added.
2. Existing short positions were reduced.

That combination is more constructive than short covering alone because it shows some new bullish exposure as well as reduced bearish exposure.

However, the signal is not broad-based across every trader group. Asset managers remain heavily long S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, but they have not been adding exposure aggressively across the full one-month window.

S&P 500 – The Cleanest Read

S&P 500 futures had the cleanest equity positioning signal in this report.

Asset managers remained heavily net long at +977,359 contracts, equal to 29.8% of open interest. Their positioning sits at the 62nd percentile over six months and the 81st percentile over one year.

That means asset manager exposure is still elevated over the one-year window, but it is not extreme over the shorter six-month window.

The important nuance is that asset managers reduced exposure slightly over the week and are down 75,918 contracts over the past month. So asset managers remain structurally long, but they are not aggressively chasing.

The stronger weekly signal came from leveraged money. Leveraged funds remain net short S&P 500 futures by 428,714 contracts, but their net position improved by 54,261 contracts in one week.

The underlying breakdown:

• Leveraged money longs increased by 23,860 contracts
• Leveraged money shorts decreased by 30,401 contracts

That is why the flow read is new longs plus short covering.

Even after this improvement, leveraged money positioning is still low versus history, sitting at the 27th percentile over six months and the 29th percentile over one year.

The main confirmation is open interest. S&P 500 open interest rose by 98,758 contracts, suggesting fresh money entered the contract.

SmartFlow read:
S&P 500 positioning is supportive because leveraged money became meaningfully less bearish while open interest rose. However, the signal is not broad-based across every trader group because asset managers remain heavily net long but have trimmed exposure over the past month.

Nasdaq With Strong Improvement, But Less Clean Than S&P 500

Nasdaq futures also improved.

Asset managers are net long 81,921 contracts, equal to 22.8% of open interest. Their positioning is elevated versus history, sitting at the 77th percentile over six months and the 85th percentile over one year.

That means asset managers are still long Nasdaq futures compared with recent history.

Leveraged money saw the bigger weekly change. Their net position improved by 18,886 contracts, a 36.2% weekly move.

Again, this was not only short covering. The breakdown shows:

• Leveraged money longs increased by 11,654 contracts
• Leveraged money shorts decreased by 7,232 contracts

That means leveraged money shifted less bearish through both new longs and short covering.

The percentile context is important. Leveraged money positioning is at the 38th percentile over six months, but only the 21st percentile over one year. So even after this improvement, leveraged money positioning remains low versus the longer one-year range.

The issue is open interest. Nasdaq open interest fell by 4,037 contracts, which means part of the market-level move may reflect positions closing rather than broad fresh capital entering.

SmartFlow read:
Nasdaq positioning improved sharply, especially among leveraged money. Asset manager positioning is already elevated versus history, while leveraged money is still low over the one-year range. Falling open interest makes the signal less clean than the S&P 500.

Dow Jones – Mixed Signal

Dow futures were less convincing.

Asset managers moved slightly net short at -689 contracts, and the weekly flow showed long liquidation plus new shorts. Their positioning is at the 15th percentile over six months and the 8th percentile over one year, which means Dow asset manager positioning is defensive versus history.

Leveraged money improved by 3,967 contracts, with the same basic pattern seen in S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures:

• Leveraged money longs increased
• Leveraged money shorts decreased

That points to new longs plus short covering.

However, open interest fell by 2,002 contracts, which makes the overall Dow signal weaker. Leveraged money positioning is also relatively high versus its six-month history at the 73rd percentile, so the improvement is not coming from a deeply depressed historical base in the same way as other areas.

SmartFlow read:
Dow positioning is mixed. Leveraged money became less bearish, but asset managers are defensive versus history and open interest declined. This makes Dow futures weaker than S&P 500 and Nasdaq from a positioning perspective.

Short-Volatility Exposure Builds on the VIX

VIX futures are one of the most important risk signals this week.

Asset managers moved more net short VIX futures, with net positioning falling to -26,394 contracts. The weekly change was -13,878 contracts, and the flow showed long liquidation plus new shorts.

That is a bearish volatility flow. In practical terms, it suggests asset managers reduced long-volatility exposure while adding short-volatility exposure.

The percentile data adds more context. Asset manager VIX positioning is at the 35th percentile over six months and the 17th percentile over one year. That means positioning is not at an extreme low yet, but it is moving lower.

Leveraged money was also net short VIX futures at -35,290 contracts, although the weekly change was smaller. Leveraged money positioning sits at the 50th percentile over six months and the 75th percentile over one year.

Short-volatility positioning often fits a calm-market environment. If traders expect volatility to remain contained, they may reduce long-vol hedges or add short-vol exposure.

But this can also create fragility. When too much positioning leans short volatility, a sudden volatility spike can force fast repositioning.

Our read:
VIX positioning supports the current calm-market narrative, but it also increases fragility if volatility returns. The signal is not extreme by every percentile measure, but the weekly direction clearly moved toward more short-volatility exposure.

Metals: Gold Cools, Silver Stabilizes

Gold positioning remains net long, but the weekly impulse weakened.

Managed money is net long 105,863 contracts, equal to 31.8% of open interest. That is still a meaningful long position. Managed money positioning sits at the 69th percentile over six months and the 44th percentile over one year.

That tells us gold managed money positioning is positive, but not historically extreme.

However, managed money reduced exposure by 6,316 contracts over the week.

The gross flow breakdown shows:

• Managed money longs fell by 3,087 contracts
• Managed money shorts increased by 3,229 contracts

That means gold saw long liquidation plus new shorts from managed money.

Open interest rose by 6,657 contracts, which means fresh money entered the contract even as managed money reduced net exposure.

Our read:
Gold is not bearish overall because managed money remains net long, but the latest weekly flow shows bullish momentum cooled. The percentile positioning also confirms that gold is not at an extreme managed money long.

Silver looks more neutral.

Managed money is net long 10,403 contracts, but the weekly change was almost flat at -41 contracts. Managed money positioning is at the 50th percentile over six months and the 25th percentile over one year.

Producer and merchant positioning improved by 1,334 contracts, and open interest rose slightly.

Our read:
Silver positioning looks more like stabilization than a strong directional signal. Managed money positioning is mid-range over six months and low versus one-year history.

 Positioning Remains Stretched for Crypto

Bitcoin futures positioning needs careful interpretation.

Asset managers are still net long 2,888 contracts, but their positioning is at the 4th percentile over six months and the 2nd percentile over one year. This means asset managers remain net long in absolute terms, but their current exposure is extremely low compared with where it has been recently.

Leveraged money remains net short by 6,085 contracts, but its positioning is at the 100th percentile over both six months and one year. This may sound odd at first because leveraged money is still net short. But percentile positioning measures the position versus history. In this case, leveraged money is still short, but it is much less short than it has been across the comparison window.

The one-month leveraged money change is strongly positive at +5,084 contracts.

The one-month breakdown shows:

• Longs increased by 1,844 contracts
• Shorts decreased by 3,240 contracts

That means leveraged money became less bearish over the month through new longs and short covering.

Open interest rose only slightly.

Our read:
Bitcoin positioning has improved among leveraged money over the broader one-month window, but asset manager exposure is extremely low versus history. This is a stretched and sensitive setup, not a clean bullish or bearish signal.

Ether looks weaker on the latest weekly data.

Asset managers are net short 3,242 contracts, with positioning at the 8th percentile over six months and the 4th percentile over one year. That is an extreme low versus history.

Leveraged money is net short 4,817 contracts, but its positioning is high versus history at the 92nd percentile over six months and the 96th percentile over one year. Again, this means leveraged money is still net short in absolute terms, but the position is high compared with its own recent range.

Leveraged money improved strongly over the month, but the weekly change turned negative and open interest fell.

Our read:
Ether has less weekly confirmation than Bitcoin. The one-month positioning trend improved, but the latest weekly data is softer and open interest declined.

U.S. Dollar Index – The Most Stretched Macro Trade

DXY futures are the sedning a crowding signal in this report.

Asset managers are net long 16,601 contracts, up 1,598 contracts on the week and 8,248 contracts over the month. Their positioning is at the 100th percentile over six months and the 100th percentile over one year.

That is the strongest extreme high positioning signal in the report.

Leveraged money is net short 13,661 contracts, down 2,485 contracts on the week and 8,865 contracts over the month. Their positioning is at the 4th percentile over six months and the 19th percentile over one year.

Open interest rose by 6,918 contracts, which suggests fresh money entered the contract.

This is important because both major trader groups are stretched in opposite directions versus their own history. Asset managers are heavily positioned for dollar strength, while leveraged money is positioned near the low end of its range.

Our read:
The dollar is the most important macro positioning setup this week. Asset managers are positioned at an extreme high versus history, while leveraged money is positioned near an extreme low. This does not mean the dollar has to reverse, but it does mean the trade is more sensitive if the macro narrative changes.

How SmartFlow Helps

SmartFlow uses COT positioning as one layer of market intelligence.

The weekly COT report becomes more useful when combined with institutional-style flow, options positioning, market maker activity, sentiment, and broader macro context.

For example:

• Equity positioning can be compared with options flow and market maker positioning.
• VIX short exposure can be compared with volatility regime data.
• DXY crowding can be compared with macro sentiment and risk appetite.
• Gold positioning can be compared with dollar strength and rates.
• Crypto positioning can be compared with broader market liquidity and sentiment.

The goal is not to treat COT data as a trade signal. The goal is to understand whether positioning, flow, and market structure are confirming each other or sending mixed signals.

Risk Note

COT data is delayed and should not be used as a standalone trading signal. Positioning can stay stretched for longer than expected, and crowded trades do not have to reverse immediately. Net positioning also does not reveal the full strategy behind every trade, because futures can be used for hedging, spreading, speculation, or risk management.

This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.